短線觀點 香港中資銀行股上漲探因

Liquidity is so easy, said one Hong Kong trader last week, that investors are even buying Chinese banks. These behemoths are, or were, the least-liked sector of an unloved market. But they are the driver behind the fact that Hong Kong’s main Chinese benchmark was among the world’s top 10 performing indices in the past month. A change of views on China, or just money sloshing around in search of a home?

上週有一名香港交易員表示，流動性來得如此容易，以至於投資者甚至在買入中資銀行股。在整體上不招人喜歡的市場中，這些巨獸本是最不受人待見的。然而，它們卻是過去一個月裏香港中企基準指數躋身全球表現十佳指數行列的推動因素。這是因爲投資者對中國的看法變了，還是因爲資金在四處尋找歸宿？

By the numbers, views on Chinese stocks could hardly appear more negative. Equity investors have pulled more money out of China this year than all other emerging markets combined, and kept doing so even during the recent EM rally, says HSBC. In spite of its 7.3 per cent rise in the past month, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), the main gauge of international sentiment towards mainland stocks, is still trading on just eight times expected earnings, compared with 14 for blue-chip mainland listings, and 19 times for the S&P 500.

從數據來看，投資者對中國股票的看法很難表現得更悲觀了。匯豐(HSBC)表示，今年以來，股權投資者從中國撤出的資金超出了所有其他新興市場的總和，而且，即使是在近期新興市場大漲的行情中，他們依然在這麼做。作爲衡量國際投資者對中國企業股票的情緒的主要指標，恆生中國企業指數（HSCEI，簡稱國企指數）儘管在過去一個月裏上漲了7.3%，其預期市盈率仍然只有8倍，低於內地藍籌股的14倍，也低於標普500指數(S&P 500)的19倍。

Views on China’s economy depend on whether you are a bear or, that rare thing, a bull. Retail sales of 10.2 per cent year-on-year came in below expectations last week while industrial production slipped from 6.2 per cent to 6 per cent. Bears see both as a slowdown; bulls see a still decent growth rate. But one metric that everyone can agree is scary is credit, which is still growing at 12 per cent, or about twice the rate of the overall economy.

你對中國經濟持何種看法，取決於你本身是看空者還是罕見的看多者。上週發佈的中國社會消費品零售總額同比漲幅10.2%，低於預期。與此同時，規模以上工業增加值的增幅則從6.2%下滑至6%。看空者將兩者都視爲放緩，而看多者則認爲這些仍是不錯的增長率。然而，有一個指標可能引起了所有人的擔心，那就是信貸。信貸仍然在以12%的速度增長，約爲整體經濟增長率的兩倍。

China’s big banks trade on about 0.7 times book value, reflecting doubts about loan quality — roughly in line with their European peers. Europe, as measured by the FTSE Eurofirst 300 banks index, offers a return on equity of 3.4 per cent, while China’s big lenders offer 15-17 per cent.

中國大銀行的股價約爲每股淨資產的70%，反映出投資者對貸款質量的疑慮——這個水平與歐洲大銀行大致相當。以富時Eurofirst 300銀行指數(FTSE Eurofirst 300 banks index)衡量，歐洲大銀行的股本回報率爲3.4%，而中國大銀行爲15%到17%。

Those two metrics matter for the $8bn-plus float next month of their fellow, Postal Savings Bank of China, in Hong Kong. Listings of mainland banks in the city have tended to attract only so-so demand, not helped by a mainland rule that they do not sell shares below book value.

對於中國郵政儲蓄銀行(Postal Savings Bank of China)下月在香港預計融資逾80億美元的首次公開發行(IPO)來說，上述兩個指標十分重要。由於香港不像內地有新股發行價格不低於每股淨資產這樣一條規則，內地銀行在香港IPO所吸引的認購需求往往只能說是一般。

On paper, China’s banks look like some of the best value to be had. But in reality there is a big “would you?” factor.

理論上，中資銀行看起來似乎屬於具有最佳投資價值的股票。然而現實中你會不會投資卻要打上一個大大的問號。

Strong interest in PSBC would suggest that interest was genuine and there was a change of heart but for now, this recent rally is indeed all about liquidity, not conviction.

假如中國郵儲銀行吸引了投資者的濃厚興趣，那將表明這種興趣是真實的，投資者的心態發生了改變。然而就目前來說，最近中資銀行股上漲實際上只和流動性有關，而與投資者的看法無關。