短線觀點:別看扁價值股

In a week in which technology shares reached record highs, and the valuations of Amazon and Facebook eclipsed $500bn, investors should revisit a 2016 trade that many thought had all but died out.

在美國科技股創歷史新高、亞馬遜(Amazon)和Facebook的市值超過5000億美元的本週，投資者應該回顧一下2016年的一類交易；許多人曾以爲這類交易已經沒戲了。

Lost in the tech rally is the surprising turn from other cyclical sectors and the glimmers of hope they offered for the broader economy. It included upbeat commentary from bulldozer manufacturer Caterpillar and faster profit growth at aerospace group Boeing.

此輪科技股漲勢遮蓋了其他週期性板塊的一個令人意外的轉折，以及它們給整體經濟帶來的希望曙光。這包括推土機制造商卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)的樂觀言論，以及航空航天集團波音(Boeing)盈利增長速度的提高。

Investors have long since written the obituary on the so-called reflation trade that gained momentum after the election of Donald Trump. Economic growth was supposed to quicken and inflation rise as the new administration pumped billions into infrastructure, cut taxes and defanged regulations. The eulogies may be premature.

投資者早就對所謂的通貨再膨脹交易不抱希望，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)當選後這類交易勢頭加大。經濟增長理應加快，通脹理應上揚，因爲新一屆行政當局將向基礎設施投入鉅額資金，削減稅收，並且拔掉監管的鋒芒。但讚揚的話可能說得過早。

While value shares have lagged behind — advancing 4.6 per cent so far this year compared to the 16 per cent rise by growth stocks — a turning point may be in sight. A bounce in US consumer confidence and preliminary manufacturing PMIs, both reported this week, may also bode well for many of the traditional value sectors. The logic goes that if economic activity quickens, investors may no longer need to pay up for growth.

雖然價值型股票表現滯後——今年迄今爲止上漲了4.6%，增長型股票則上漲了16%——但轉折點可能已經看得到。本週公佈的美國消費者信心數據和製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)初步數據雙雙反彈，可能對許多傳統的價值型板塊股票是利好。這裏的邏輯是，如果經濟活動加快，投資者可能就不再需要爲增長支付溢價。

Quant strategists at AllianceBernstein note that a “value rally would be sustainable with some support from the macro environment”. The way they see it, markets would need to see higher interest rates, faster economic growth or a return of the reflation trade.

聯博(AllianceBernstein)的量化交易測量師指出，“在宏觀環境的部分支持下，一輪價值型股票漲勢將是可持續的。”在他們看來，市場需要看到更高的利率，更快的經濟增長或通貨再膨脹交易捲土重來。

The market is not currently pricing in that possibility, particularly after the Federal Reserve acknowledged several poor inflation reports this week. Investors will have to wait for more progress on the earnings front for confirmation that economic activity is truly improving.

目前市場目前還沒有從價格上計入這種可能性，特別是在美聯儲(Fed)本週承認了幾份糟糕的通脹報告之後。投資者必須等待盈利方面有更多進展，才能確定經濟活動真的在好轉。

And therein may be the piece of good news, courtesy of mining group Freeport-McMoRan. “Chinese demand is better than most expected . . . and so it’s encouraging to see this — to see European demand improving, North America growing at a low rate,” Freeport’s chief executive said this week. That would mean the reflation story still has legs and that value stocks could yet find momentum.

而好消息可能已經有了，那是由採礦集團自由港邁克墨倫(Freeport-McMoRan)帶來的。自由港的首席執行官本週表示：“中國需求好於多數人的預期……所以看到這一點令人鼓舞，同時我們也看到歐洲的需求在好轉，而北美在以低速增長”。這將意味着通貨再膨脹交易的故事仍有後勁，而價值型股票仍可能出現上漲勢頭。