短線觀點 股市就是投機天堂
Commentators have been shocked, shocked, to find that there’s gambling going on in Chinese and Hong Kong shares. The immediate cause of worry was the plunge in the Hong Kong-listed shares of solar group Hanergy Thin Film on Wednesday and of two companies in the Goldin horse breeding-to-finance conglomerate.
評論人士無限震驚地發現，針對中國的股票正在上演一場賭博。引發擔憂的直接原因是在香港上市的中國太陽能企業漢能薄膜發電(HTF)週三暴跌，以及業務範圍囊括育馬、金融多個領域的高銀集團(Goldin)旗下兩家公司股票暴跌。
Everyone from academics, the media and amused City onlookers have rushed to explain that the Chinese market is dominated by mere speculation. Ridiculous gains and losses in shares had nothing to do with fundamentals because the gamblers involved can’t even spell “price-earning ratio” — or in some cases read and write, if reports of the lack of literacy of many of those opening mainland brokerage accounts are accurate.
從學術界、媒體到倫敦金融城看戲的旁觀者，每個人都急忙出來解釋說，純粹的投機主導着中國股市。股票莫名其妙的漲跌與基本面毫無關係，因爲參與其中的賭徒們連“市盈率”都寫不對，有些根本不識字（假如有關中國內地許多開設股票交易賬戶的人沒什麼文化的報道真實的話）。It is true that Chinese markets are a speculative heaven. So, too, are stock markets everywhere, to a greater or lesser degree. Indeed, that is a large part of the appeal, as a glance at the propensity of traders to take a personal flutter on everything from elections to Premier League points should make clear.
誠然，中國股市是投機天堂。不過，任何地方的股市或多或少都是。沒錯兒，這恰恰是股市的主要吸引力所在，只用粗略注意一下交易員多麼喜歡就任何東西——從選舉結果到英超(Premier League)分數——打賭就應該明白這一點。
Economists like to think that the “point” of stock exchanges is to allow companies to raise money, to provide prices to guide management decisions and to allow investors to cash in when required.
經濟學家喜歡說，股票交易所存在的“意義”是讓企業能夠有融資途徑，提供價格引導管理決策，讓投資者能夠在需要的時候將股票套現。But markets sprang up just as much because speculators liked to bet on whatever was available, from lottery derivatives to “dead man’s tickets” provided as promissory notes by the Royal Navy, as historian Helen Paul at the University of Southampton points out.
然而，正如南安普敦大學(Southampton university)的海倫•保羅(Helen Paul)所指出的，股市出現的原因還包括投機者喜歡對一切可以賭的東西下賭注，從彩票衍生品、到皇家海軍(Royal Navy)的票據（被稱爲“死人票”）。This is not to say that fundamentals such as profit, dividend or the state of the economy do not matter. But speculation matters at least as much, if not more, and always has. John Maynard Keynes provided perhaps the best analysis in his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, comparing shares to a beauty contest where winning is not about selecting the prettiest, but anticipating what average opinion thinks will be the average opinion of who is prettiest.
這並不是說利潤、分紅或經濟狀況等基本面因素不重要。但投機因素至少跟基本面一樣重要，如果說不是更重要的話，始終如是。約翰•梅納德•凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)在《就業、利息和貨幣通論》(The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money)中的分析或許是最妙的：他把股票比作一場選美競賽，關鍵不在於選擇最漂亮的參賽者，而在於預測人們普遍會認爲哪位參賽者最符合大多數人的審美。“Investment based on genuine long-term expectation is so difficult today as to be scarcely practicable,” Keynes wrote in 1935. It has not become any easier since then.
凱恩斯在1935年寫道：“如今，基於真實的長期預期的投資非常困難，幾乎不可行。”現在依然如此。
