世界銀行:對新興市場的擔憂正在增長
A perfect Storm is brewing this summer for emerging markets, and it could hit hard in September.
今年夏天，一場完美風暴正在新興市場中醞釀，到9月份時可能會更加猛烈。After years of impressive growth, countries like China and Brazil face steeper challenges this year, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said in a report released Wednesday.
世界銀行行長金鎮勇在週三發佈的報道中說，在數年令人驚歎的增長之後，這些國家，比如中國和巴西，面臨了更大的挑戰。"Developing countries were an engine of global growth following the financial crisis," Kim said. "Now th ey face a more difficult economic environment."
"發展中國家是金融危機後全球危機的引擎,"金說,“現在，他們面臨着一個更加困難的經濟環境。”
The World Bank isn.t the only organization expressing concern. The Federal Reserve debated the negative affect of a Fed rate hike on emerging markets at its last meeting. Concern is rising.
世界銀行並不是唯一一個表達擔憂的組織。美聯儲也在上次會議中爭論提升利率會對新興市場造成的負面影響，擔憂正在上升。Three things could culminate in September to send investors scrambling from emerging markets.
三件事可能在9月份到達頂峯，讓新興市場投資者陷入混亂。1. The strong U.S. dollar;
1.強美元；2. Low commodity prices due to China's slowdown and a lack of demand;
2.由於中國減速和缺乏需求而造成的大宗商品價格下降；3. A Federal Reserve rate increase.
3.美聯儲提升利率Issues with a Fed rate hike: Many experts expect the Fed to raise rates in September, something it hasn't done since 2006.
美聯儲提升利率造成的問題：很多專家預測，美聯儲將在9月份提升利率，這是2006年以來的首次。That would cause two things. It would increase borrowing costs — interest on loans — for companies in emerging markets. And it would make American debt more attractive to investors, meaning emerging marl< ebt could see a selloff.
這會導致兩種結果。它會提高新興市場公司的借貸成本和貸款利率。它會讓美國國債對投資者來說更吸引人,這意味着新興市場債券會面臨拋售。Anytime the Fed moves an inch, it makes emerging markets shiver in fear. In 2013, when former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke signaled that the bank would eventually end its stimulus program, emerging markets had a " per tantrum." So a Fed rate hike isn.t welcome news.
任何時候，只要美聯儲一行動，新興市場就會爲之顫慄。在2013年，當美聯儲主席本路伯南克暗示刺激計劃結束的時候，新興市場"逐漸熄火"。所以，美聯儲提升利率不是什麼好消息。Storm clouds ahead: The rocky outlook for emerging markets this year is a far cry from just a few years ago when the U.S. dollar was weak, interest rates were near zero and commodity prices were still high.
風暴正在前行：今年，與前些年美元弱勢，利率接近0，同時大宗商品價格保持高位的的時候相比，新興市場的艱難前景越發糟糕。"All that was a perfect storm for emerging markets to perform well. But that rug has been pulled out," says Win Thin, global head of emerging market currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. "I'm pretty nervous for emerging markets this year."
"所有這些都是新興市場表現良好的基礎。但是，這些好處都消失了，"布朗兄弟哈爾曼公司的新興市場貨幣策略總裁溫勝說，"我非常擔憂新興市場的今年。"Not all emerging markets will struggle, Thin says. Countries like India, China and Colombia are better positioned than Brazil and South Africa. Generally, Asian countries are expected to fare better than Latin American and African nations.
不是所有的新興市場都面臨痛苦，勝說，有些國家，比如印度，中國和哥倫比亞，情況就比巴西和南非好得多。一般來說，亞洲國家預期要比拉美和非洲國家好。The dollar's surge, like rising interest rates, makes it harder for emerging nations and businesses to pay off their debt. And emerging economies' engine of growth -- commodities like oil, copper and soy -- have fallen off a cliff in the past year. It's a triple whammy.
美元巨浪，比如提升利率，讓新興市場國家和它們的公司難以償還債務。新興經濟體的增長引擎——大宗商品，比如石油，銅和大豆——在過去的幾年裏已經出現斷崖式下跌。這是三重打擊。Earlier this spring, emerging market stocks, which are cheap, were surging, up 10% in late April. But that was just their moment in the sun. Reality is starting to set in that a Fed rate hike is coming. (Fed Chair Janet Yellen basically said so in May.) The MSCI emerging market index is now only up 2.2% this year.
今年春季早期，十分便宜的新興市場股票突然暴漲，漲幅在4月份達到10%。但是，這只是迴光返照。隨着美聯儲升息的臨近，現實已經來臨了。（美聯儲主席珍妮特·耶倫在5月份大致這麼表達過。）摩根士丹利的新興市場指數今年只增長了2.2%。The major concern is that all these factors could cause cash to flood out of emerging markets and companies this fall.
主要的擔憂是，這些因素可能會導致新興市場資金流出，企業因此倒閉。"The U.S. Federal Reserve's first interest rate increase since the global financial crisis could ignite market volatility and reduce capital flows to emerging markets," the World Bank said in its report. Kim, the bank's president, said it will try to help these countries.
世界銀行在它的報告中說，"美聯儲自金融危機以來的首次升息行爲可能會引發市場動盪，從而減少流入新興市場的資金。"行長金說，世行會嘗試幫助這些國家。
