新興市場債務激增是危機之兆
Emerging market private sector debt has surged by an “enormous” 33 per cent of gross domestic product since the global financial crisis, heightening the risk of financial crises, according to new analysis by JPMorgan.
根據摩根大通(JPMorgan)最新的分析，全球金融危機以後，新興市場私營部門債務佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比例激增33%，幅度“極大”，增大了爆發金融危機的風險。
The findings come amid mounting expectations that the US Federal Reserve is drawing close to its first rate rise since the crisis, a move many fear many reduce capital flows to emerging markets, potentially raising borrowing costs even if central banks do not raise policy rates in order to defend their currencies.
目前正值市場對美聯儲(Fed)加息預期上升——這將是美聯儲在金融危機之後的首次加息，許多人擔憂此舉將使流入新興市場的資本減少，即使各國央行不提高政策利率以捍衛本幣，借貸成本也可能因此上升。
JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that the debt burdens of emerging market companies and households have jumped from 73 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 106 per cent at the end of 2014, virtually as high as in the developed world, where private sector debt levels have been falling (see the first chart).
摩根大通的分析表明，新興市場企業和家庭的債務負擔佔GDP的比例從2007年的73%躍升至2014年底的106%，幾乎和發達國家一樣高，而發達國家私營部門的債務水平一直在下降（見第一張圖表）。
“In previous research, the IMF found that an increase in the ratio of credit to GDP of five percentage points or more in a single year signals a heightened risk of an eventual financial crisis,” says Joseph Lupton, senior global economist at JPMorgan.
“國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在以前的研究中發現，信貸佔GDP比例在一年中增加5個百分點以上，就預示着最終爆發金融危機的風險增大，”摩根大通高級全球經濟學家約瑟夫勒普頓(Joseph Lupton)表示。
“Nearly half [of the EM countries analysed] have registered sustained increases at close to this amount over the entire period.”
“（所分析的新興國家中）近一半在整個期間持續出現接近這一幅度的增長。”
Moreover, although the figures include domestic bank credit, cross-border loans extended to the non-bank private sector and debt securities issued by non-financial companies, it does not include shadow banking, due to a lack of data in many countries.
此外，儘管摩根大通的數據包括國內銀行信貸、發放給非銀行私營部門的跨境貸款和非金融企業發行的債券，但由於許多國家缺乏相關數據，該數據並不包含影子銀行。
As a result, JPMorgan estimates that it is understating total private credit by around 10 per cent.
因此，摩根大通估計，其將私人信貸總水平低估了約10%。
Its greatest fear is that the supply of credit could tighten sharply, “triggering a crisis in some EM economies”.
該機構認爲，最讓人擔憂的是信貸供給可能大幅收緊，“在一些新興市場經濟體引發一場危機”。
Mr Lupton notes that banks in a number of EM countries are already tightening lending standards in response to rising loan delinquencies and tighter funding conditions.
勒普頓指出，一些新興市場國家的銀行已經開始收緊放貸標準，以應對貸款違約率的上升和資金趨緊的狀況。
Even if this does not escalate, however, he believes the rapid build-up of private sector debt will pose “a major headwind” for emerging market growth in the coming years.
即使局面沒有進一步惡化，勒普頓認爲，私營部門債務的迅速膨脹，也將對新興市場未來幾年的經濟增長造成“重大阻礙”。
Citing the example of developed markets since the financial crisis, where economic growth has arguably been held back by household deleveraging, he believes the same phenomena is poised to happen in emerging markets.
可以說，金融危機後，發達市場的經濟增長被家庭的去槓桿化所阻礙。勒普頓認爲，相同的現象也即將在新興市場發生。
“Emerging markets are just at the beginning of what is going to be a long and painful deleveraging cycle,” Mr Lupton said.
“新興市場正處在一個漫長而痛苦的去槓桿化週期的開端，”勒普頓說。
“After seven years of a credit binge fuelled by easy money from the Fed the tide is going out and what’s going to be left to see is the quality of assets that have been bought over this period. There are going to be plenty of assets that are not going to be able to weather the Fed rate-hiking process.”
“在經歷了長達7年、由美聯儲寬鬆貨幣政策推動的信貸狂潮後，潮水正在退去，剩下要看的是在這段時期內購買的資產的質量。將有許多資產無法經受住美聯儲的加息週期。”
Mr Lupton admits to being downbeat on the global economy as a whole, given that emerging markets now account for around 40 per cent of GDP, around twice the level during the 1997-98 EM crises, meaning a slowdown will have a greater effect on the world at large.
勒普頓承認，他對全球經濟整體上抱悲觀看法，因爲新興市場現在佔全球GDP的約40%，大約是1997-98年新興市場危機時期的兩倍，這意味着新興市場的放緩將對世界產生更嚴重的影響。
Furthermore, he believes the threat is not fully understood. “When we talk to clients we get a lot of emphasis on the rise in external debt, in particular to the corporate sector, but in many ways it pales versus the domestic credit that has been built up,” he says.
此外，他認爲人們並未充分理解這一威脅。“我們與客戶交談時，發現人們很注重外債的上升，尤其是企業部門，但從很多方面來說，這與國內債務的增長相比就顯得不那麼重要了，”
The problem is most acute in Asia. Hong Kong, at 293.2 per cent, and Singapore, 178.9 per cent, have the highest ratios of private non-financial credit to GDP, although their status as regional financial centres, with a concentration of banking and capital markets activity, may skew the figures somewhat.
亞洲的問題最爲嚴重。香港和新加坡是私人非金融信貸佔GDP比例最高的兩個地區，分別爲293.2%和178.9%。不過作爲地區金融中心，這兩個地方是銀行和資本市場活動的聚集地，這可能在某種程度上扭曲數據。
But even apart from this duo, the highest ratios are found in Asian countries such as Malaysia (170.7 per cent), South Korea (167.2 per cent), mainland China (147.1 per cent) and Thailand (134.4 per cent), as the second chart shows.
但就算排除這二者，如第二張圖表所示，該比例最高的依然是在亞洲國家和地區，如馬來西亞(170.7%)、韓國(167.2%)、中國內地(147.1%)和泰國(134.4%)。
Hong Kong and Singapore have also seen the largest rises in their private non-financial credit to GDP ratios since the end of 2007, with Hong Kong’s level rising by 110.5 percentage points (to $868bn) and Singapore’s by 63.3 points (to $541bn).
香港和新加坡也是自2007年底以來私人非金融信貸佔GDP比例增幅最大的地區，其中香港增長了110.5個百分點（至8680億美元），新加坡增長了63.3個百分點（至5410億美元）。
Aside from these two, mainland China stands out. It has seen the largest rise in debt levels since 2007, of 42.7 percentage points, and has by far and away the largest stock of private non-financial sector debt in dollar terms, some $14.97tn, more than half of the $26.38tn of such debt in the 20 EM countries analysed by JPMorgan.
除了這兩個地方，中國內地也十分突出。不算香港和新加坡，中國內地的私人非金融信貸佔GDP比例上升最多，爲42.7個百分點。以美元計算，中國內地的私人非金融部門債務存量也是最高的，達到約14.97萬億美元，超過摩根大通分析的20個新興市場國家此類債務總和（26.38萬億美元）的一半。
The next largest stocks of debt were found in South Korea ($2.3tn), Brazil ($1.61tn) and India ($1.2tn).
在中國之後，債務存量最大的國家是韓國（2.3萬億美元）、巴西（1.61萬億美元）和印度（1.2萬億美元）。
Turkey, Thailand and Brazil have also seen rises of more than 30 percentage points in their debt ratio since the global financial crisis, figures Mr Lupton describes as “very big”.
全球金融危機後，土耳其、泰國和巴西的債務佔GDP比例的上升也超過了30個百分點，勒普頓稱這些數字“很大”。
Hungary, South Africa and Argentina were the only three of the 20 countries to see a fall in this measure. Argentina has the lowest ratio overall (15.4 per cent of GDP), followed by Mexico and Indonesia.
20個國家中，該指標出現下降的只有三個國家：匈牙利、南非和阿根廷。阿根廷還是所有國家中債務比例最低的（佔GDP的15.4%），其後是墨西哥和印度尼西亞。
However, JPMorgan’s analysis suggests only around 8 per cent of the debt is foreign currency-denominated, lessening fears over rising repayments as emerging market currencies continue to weaken against the dollar.
然而，摩根大通的分析表明，只有約8%的負債是以外幣計價的，這減輕了新興市場貨幣相對美元持續走弱會造成償債負擔上升的憂慮。
In China, this figure is only around 2 per cent, although this still equates to about $300bn of debt.
在中國，這一數字僅爲約2%，儘管此類債務的數額依然達到約3000億美元。
The highest proportions of foreign currency-denominated private debt are believed to be in Mexico (47 per cent), Hungary (43 per cent), Singapore (40 per cent), Turkey (27 per cent) and Brazil (23 per cent).
以外幣計價的私人債務比例最高的國家是墨西哥(47%)、匈牙利(43%)、新加坡(40%)、土耳其(27%)和巴西(23%)。
JPMorgan’s central forecast is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 175 basis points by the end of 2016, almost double market expectations of around 100bp.
摩根大通的核心預期是，美聯儲到2016年底將累計加息175個基點。這遠高於市場預期的加息約100個基點。
“From the markets’ perspective, that is going to be somewhat jarring,” says Mr Lupton.
“從市場的角度來說，這多少將令人不安，”勒普頓說。
