時事新聞:看漲派不再看好美股前景

【英文原文】

The Bulls Of March

It feels good to be right. But the few analysts who accurately called the market's bottom in early March aren't feeling so great about where stocks are headed.

One of the most famous of this group, Jeremy Grantham, penned a note on March 10 entitled 'Reinvesting When Terrified' that encouraged investors to buy, suggesting stocks were 30% undervalued.

Since then, the market has roared ahead, without stopping for a correction of 10% or more. Standard & Poor's 500-share index ended last week at 1026.13, up nearly 52% from its 12 1/2-year low on March 9 and its highest close since Oct. 6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 9505.96, up 45% since its March low.

Now, the chairman of Boston asset-management firm GMO and his colleagues say the S&P 500 has zoomed right past what they consider fair value of about 880, based on earnings estimates and historical price-to-earnings ratios.

Mr. Grantham sees 'seven lean years' of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter.

'The past 12 years have seen two bubbles that were really good for corporate profits,' says Ben Inker, GMO's director of asset allocation. 'Now things are unlikely to be anywhere near as good as people have gotten used to, because we're not going to have a bubble to help us.'

Several other analysts who got it right in March say they aren't roaring bulls about the long-term outlook, although their views for the next 12 months are split.

In March, analysts who picked the bottom were a lonely lot. Panic was widespread, and previously bullish analysts were advising clients to stay out of the market. Yet rather than double down on their bearish take, some long-time market skeptics decided a bottom was near.

One who shifted gears, Michael Darda, chief economist at brokerage firm MKM Partners in Greenwich, Conn., is optimistic about stocks' prospects for next year. But he harbors doubts about stocks' ability to eke out gains past 2010.

On Feb. 24, after months of advising clients to invest defensively, Mr. Darda released a note entitled 'Getting More Constructive,' in which he said, 'Several indicators that caused us to go bearish on equities last summer have recently improved.'

Though he now suggests the market could be due for a pause after its breakneck rally, Mr. Darda says he believes the economic recovery will be more robust than most investors expect, driving the S&P 500 to 1200 or 1300 next year.

'The depth of the recession, the turn in leading economic indicators and the shift in credit markets, which has been pretty dramatic, lead us to an above-consensus view on GDP and earnings, in line with our stock-market target,' he says.

Beyond 2010, the outlook may not be so sunny given the prospect of Federal Reserve monetary tightening, the potential for higher tax rates as a result of swollen government budget deficits and other headwinds.

Other analysts are glummer about the near-term outlook.

Among them is Vinny Catalano, chief investment strategist at Blue Marble Research. After months in the bear camp, Mr. Catalano on March 5 published a piece on the Minyanville Web site titled 'Bears Out of Momentum,' in which he identified what he called 'the first signs of a cyclical bullish scenario.'

Like Mr. Grantham, Mr. Catalano now thinks stocks are slightly overvalued. He thinks the S&P's fair value is closer to 945, based on earnings estimates and traditional P/E ratios, and could retreat to that point, or lower, in a hurry, possibly as soon as autumn.

The last time market indicators were flagging a market move this consistently, he says, was early March. Of some comfort to the bulls, Mr. Catalano doesn't expect a retest of the March lows; at most, he sees a correction of about 10%.

He has company from former newsletter publisher Peter Grandich. On March 6, Mr. Grandich, now the chief commentator for Canadian online investment community Agoracom, put out a note entitled 'Bye, Bye Permabear Camp -- It's Been Great!' After 18 months of 'feasting on bull meat,' he turned slightly more positive.

'I no longer believe it's worthy to sell rallies and one should now look to buy declines,' he wrote at the time.

Mr. Grandich now thinks the Dow is likely to stall roughly at 10500. While that would be a gain of about 10% from here, foreign markets offer more juice, he says, given that they have less of a debt overhang than the U.S. does.

He also doesn't expect a retreat to March lows, but says he thinks headwinds from an aging population that will pull money out of stocks, lost wealth and household debt will keep stocks in a rut in the coming years, churning between the March lows and the pre-Lehman highs.

Like all of the analysts who got the March call right, Mr. Grandich warns that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

'Those of us that live by looking in a crystal ball,' he says, 'learn to eat a lot of broken glass.'

【中文譯文】

看準了的感覺真好。但幾位3月初時準確判斷出股市已經觸底的分析師，目前卻對股市的未來走勢不那麼樂觀。

他們中間最出名的格蘭瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)在3月10日曾發表了一份題爲《兢兢戰戰之時再投資》的研究報告，鼓勵投資者購買股票，文中說美國股市被低估了30%。

自那以來，美國股市一路高歌猛進，股指從未出現過10%以上的回調。標準普爾500指數上週收於1026.13點，較3月9日所創12年半低點高了52%，創下去年10月6日以來的最高收盤點位。道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數上週收於9505.96點，較3月份低點高了45%。

現在，身爲波士頓資產管理公司GMO董事長的格蘭瑟姆及其同事們認爲，標準普爾500指數目前已經超過了他們認爲的代表股市合理價值的880點左右水平。他們是基於對上市公司收益的預估和歷史上股市的市盈率水平做出這一判斷的。

格蘭瑟姆在其簡報中說，作爲股票價值長期處於高估狀態的償贖，股市在未來7年將走一段不景氣的下坡路。

GMO的資產配置總監殷克(Ben Inker)說，過去12年中經歷了兩次泡沫階段，泡沫對企業利潤確實有利。但人們已經習以爲常的這種好日子不大可能再現了，因爲將不再有泡沫來助我們一臂之力。

其他幾位今年3月時對股市走向做出了正確判斷的分析師表示，他們對股市的長期前景並不十分樂觀，不過這些人對股市未來12個月表現的看法卻存在分歧。

今年3月份時，認爲股市已經觸底的分析師是孤獨的少數派。當時市場上瀰漫着恐慌情緒，那些以往看漲股市的分析師建議客戶離場觀望。但一些長期對牛市行情持懷疑態度的分析師卻沒有變本加厲地唱衰股市，而是認定股市已接近觸底。

經紀公司MKM Partners的首席經濟學家達達(Michael Darda)就是此時轉變立場的分析師之一，他目前對明年的股市前景持樂觀態度。但他對股市在2010年後繼續維持上漲的能力持懷疑態度。

今年2月24日，在連續幾個月建議客戶投資抗跌性產品後，達達發表了一份題爲《變得更具建設性》的研究報告。文中說，幾個去年夏天導致我們看跌股市的指標最近已出現了改善。

雖然他目前暗示說，股市在經歷了一段猛漲後可能需要暫停一段時間，但他同時表示，相信本輪經濟復甦將比多數投資者預計的更爲強勁，從而推動標準普爾500指數明年升至1200或1300點。

他說，經濟衰退的深度、領先經濟指標的逆轉以及信貸市場的劇烈變化都讓我們對GDP和收益產生了高於普遍預期的觀點，與我們對股市的目標相吻合。

2010年以後，鑑於美聯儲收緊貨幣政策的前景、政府由於鉅額預算赤字而可能上調稅率等不利因素，經濟預期可能不會如此樂觀。

一些分析師更不看好近期的前景。

這其中就包括Blue Marble Research首席投資策略師卡塔拉諾(Vinny Catalano)。在處於空頭陣營幾個月後，卡塔拉諾3月5日在Minyanville網站上發表了一篇名爲《熊市力竭》的文章，稱他看到了週期性牛市的先兆。

同格蘭瑟姆一樣，卡塔拉諾現在認爲股市稍微有些高估。他認爲，根據收益預期和傳統的市盈率，標準普爾的合理價值接近945點，最早可能會在秋季就回落到這個點位，甚至更低。

他說，市場指標最近一次成爲市場走勢預兆的時間是在3月初。卡塔拉諾對牛市抱有一些樂觀情緒，他預計不會再次考驗3月份的低點，頂多會出現10%左右的回調。

前時事通訊發行人格蘭迪奇(Peter Grandich)與他持有相同看法。今年3月6日，目前任加拿大網絡投資社區Agoracom首席評論員的格蘭迪奇發表了一篇名爲《再見，熊市主義者》的研究報告。在發表《享受最後的牛市盛宴》18個月後，他的看法變得積極了一些。

他當時寫道，我不再認爲應該逢高賣出，現在應該逢低買進。

格蘭迪奇現在認爲，道瓊斯指數可能會在10500點遇阻。他說，儘管這仍比目前點位高出了約10%，但海外市場能帶來更大甜頭，原因是這些政府的負債都要少於美國。

他也預計不會回落至3月時的低點，但他認爲，人口老齡化的不利因素將使資金撤出股市，財富的喪失和家庭負債將在今年幾年內讓股市在3月份的低點和雷曼兄弟破產前高點之間波動。

同所有那些在3月份時判斷正確的分析師一樣，格蘭迪奇警告說，過去的表現不能保證將來的結果。

他說，我們這些靠盯着水晶球爲生的人都學會吞下很多的碎玻璃了。