金正恩的體重問題和情報通報的陷阱
BBC News – After South Korea's spy agency briefed politicians about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's rapid weight gain, prompting speculation he suffered from paranoia-induced insomnia.
BBC新聞 – 韓國情報機關向政界人士通報金正恩體重快速增長後，引發外界猜測他患上了妄想症誘發的失眠。
Around the world, a briefing given by the South Korean National Intelligence Service is generating coverage. North Korea's leader has, we are told, gained an enormous amount of weight. He can't sleep. He fears for his life.
在世界各地，韓國國家情報院發佈的簡報引發媒體紛紛報道。我們被告知，朝鮮領導人變得巨胖。他無法入睡。他擔心生命安全。
But how reliable are these briefings, which the South Korean spy agency gives the country's politicians? The truth is that their methods, like those of spies everywhere, are part hard information and part conjecture.
但韓國情報機關給政界人士的這些通報有多可靠? 事實是,他們的辦法，就像各地間諜的那些辦法一樣，部分是硬信息，部分是推測。
In the current case, concluding that the Supreme Leader has put on weight is easier. The pictures in North Korean media show the pounds which can't be photoshopped off. According to the National Intelligence Service, he was 90kg in 2012 but now weighs 130kg.
在當前情況下，得出結論說最高領袖增重了比較容易。朝鮮媒體的照片顯示了不可能被PS掉的體重。根據韓國國家情報院，他2012年時體重90公斤，現在則是130公斤。
Similarly, two years ago, Kim Jong-un was shown limping on North Korean state television, and then, three months later, hobbling with the aid of a walking stick. You don't need to be James Bond to conclude that there was something wrong with at least one of his legs. The surmising was that he was suffering from gout, an illness associated with over-indulgence, though there are other causes too.
同樣，兩年前，金正恩出現在朝鮮國家電視臺時一瘸一拐，然後，三個月後，又見他藉助柺杖蹣跚而行。不必是詹姆士邦德也能得出結論，他的腿至少有一條出了問題。猜測是，他患有痛風 – 與過度放縱有關的一種疾病，雖然也有其它原因。
But seeing the obvious in the photographs is easy. Drawing the right conclusions is harder.
但看到照片中顯而易見的事實易。得出正確結論難。
This kind of information usually emerges when the NIS briefs South Korea's parliamentary intelligence committee in private. This briefing to politicians then gets passed on to journalists and the information ends up in the newspapers. There is obviously plenty of room for error and distortion in this process. How much spin is put on the bald facts is unclear.
這種信息通常是國家情報院向韓國議會情報委員會私下通報時纔出現的。對政界人士的彙報隨後轉達給記者，信息最終出現在報紙上。這個過程中顯然有着足夠的空間產生錯誤和曲解。對枯燥的事實作了多少添油加醋的渲染不得而知。
More importantly, even if Kim Jong-un is unhealthy that certainly doesn't mean his reign is going to end soon.
更重要的是，即使金正恩健康不佳，那也肯定不意味着他的統治行將終結。
