曾俊華擔心香港面臨一場完美風暴
Hong Kong's finance chief is having a mid-summer's nightmare, worried that political problems could collide with economic ones to wreak havoc on the city.
香港政府財政主管擔心，政治、經濟問題相碰撞可能會給香港造成惡劣影響。In an entry posted to his personal blog Sunday, Financial Secretary John Tsang said he was very worried that the cloud of political uncertainty looming over Hong Kong could help to bring about a 'perfect economic storm.'
香港財政司司長曾俊華(John Tsang)在週日發表的一篇博客文章中稱，他非常擔心香港當前面臨的政治風險可能會引發一場“完美的金融經濟風暴”。
Mr. Tsang painted a gloomy picture of the city's outlook amid a slowing economy, rising unemployment and other complicated risk factors and said political problems could exacerbate the negative climate. 'If there is an additional factor of political uncertainties, it may cause a perfect financial and economic storm, opening up the opportunities for international speculators. The consequence would be very undesirable,' Mr. Tsang wrote.
曾俊華在博文中爲香港的未來描繪了一幅陰暗的圖景，經濟增長放緩、失業率上升等各種錯綜複雜的風險因素令香港難以應付，而政治問題可能進一步加劇惡劣形勢。他寫道：“如果再加上本地政局不穩，可能引發一場完美的金融經濟風暴，爲國際大鱷提供機會，後果不堪設想。”
Mr. Tsang's stark warning doesn't come totally out of the blue. Despite recent heated debate and massive protests against Beijing's influence over the development of Hong Kong's democratic process, demand for Hong Kong's currency has spiked over the last few weeks. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city's de facto central bank, has injected billions dollars in the foreign-exchange market over last few weeks to prevent the Hong Kong dollar from rising beyond its currency peg -- a range of HK$7.75-HK$7.85 per U.S. dollar.
曾俊華的警告並非完全出人意料。儘管近期有關北京干涉香港民主進程的爭論加劇並引發了大規模的抗議活動，但港元需求在過去幾周大幅上升。香港金管局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)過去幾周向外匯市場注入了數十億港元，以防港元匯率突破1美元兌7.75-7.85港元交易區間的上限。This uneasy balance between economic and political freedom has only served to fuel protests in Hong Kong. The 'Occupy Central' movement has called for protesters to paralyze the city's business district later this year if a promised government blueprint for universal suffrage fails to meet international standards. In recent months, the clashes have become more intense. The pro-establishment camp--representing the government and business interests--has launched a counter-offensive of its own, trying to derail the Occupy Central movement.
經濟自由與政治自由之間這種不穩定的平衡只加劇了香港的抗議活動。“佔領中環”運動發出了這樣的號召：如果政府承諾的普選方案未能達到國際標準，示威者就要在今年晚些時候讓香港的商業區陷入癱瘓。最近幾個月，衝突已更加激烈。代表政府和企業利益的親建制派已開始反擊，試圖瓦解“佔領中環”運動。But many analysts say Mr. Tsang's concerns are likely overblown and that they don't expect the protests to have a huge effect on the city's economy.
但許多分析人士認爲，曾俊華的擔憂可能有些過頭，他們預計抗議活動不會對香港經濟產生太大影響。'We remain hopeful that a last-minute deal on universal suffrage will be struck between Beijing and Hong Kong,' said Daiwa Capital Market senior economist Kevin Lai. 'But even if this does not happen, to say the Occupy Central protest would bring devastating consequences to the city is far-fetched,' he said, adding that Hong Kong demonstrators don't have a reputation for violence or revolutionary bravado.
大和資本市場(Daiwa Capital Market)的高級經濟學家賴志文(Kevin Lai)表示：我們仍希望中央與香港能在最後一刻就普選達成一致意見。但他說，即便雙方沒有達成一致，斷言“佔領中環”將給香港帶來災難性後果也有些言過其實。他還稱，香港的示威者從來沒有搞暴力或革命運動的名聲。Politics in mainland China, rather than at home, look most likely to affect the city's economy in the short to medium-term. 'Hong Kong's tourism and retail sales have been hit by China's anti-graft and thrift campaign,' Mr. Lai said. Changes in Chinese visitors' spending patterns have dampened Hong Kong's retail revenue as well, he said.
與香港政局相比，中國大陸的政治形勢似乎更能在中短期影響香港經濟。賴志文說，香港的旅遊業和零售額已經因中國大陸的反腐倡廉運動而受到重創。他說，大陸游客消費模式的變化也對香港的零售額構成拖累。
