歐洲葡萄酒真在中國搞傾銷嗎

Wine is a funny market, one where most consumers really have no idea what they're doing.

葡萄酒市場的情況很滑稽，在這一市場上大多數消費者實際上並不清楚他們正在做什麼。

In blind taste tests, the typical non-expert wine drinker tends to prefer the taste of cheaper wines (but experts prefer more expensive wines.) And when average consumers are told the price of the wine, they tend to believe more expensive wine tastes better than cheaper wine.

如果蒙上眼睛對葡萄酒進行測試品嚐，典型的非專家品酒人往往會偏愛價格較爲低廉的葡萄酒（但品酒專家們則偏愛較爲昂貴的葡萄酒）。而當普通消費者被告知他們所品評葡萄酒的價格時，他們往往會認爲價格較貴的葡萄酒比價格較便宜的葡萄酒味道好。

It's worth keeping this in mind as China investigates whether European wineries are 'dumping' their product onto the Chinese market (a move that European analysts believe is just retaliation against the French government for backing import duties on Chinese solar panels). Are Chinese consumers looking for the best-tasting wine for their yuan? Or do they, like their Western counterparts, often buy a particular bottle of wine because it is more expensive?

在中國開始調查歐洲的葡萄酒廠商是否正在向中國市場“傾銷”其產品時，瞭解這一點是有必要的。（歐洲的分析人士認爲，中國此舉只是爲了報復法國政府，因爲它支持歐盟對中國太陽能電池板加徵關稅。）中國消費者是在尋找口味最好的葡萄酒呢？還是像西方人一樣，他們常常因爲哪瓶酒更貴而買下它？

If it's the latter, cutting the price of exports to China might not move more bottles off store shelves. So, why would you dump your product if suckers um, consumers are willing to buy as much maybe even more! at a higher price? If you're like me, you never buy the cheapest bottle of wine at a restaurant or store. Not because you can taste the difference, but because you don't want to look cheap.

如果情況是後者，給出口到中國的葡萄酒降價可能無助於增加在中國的葡萄酒銷量。這樣說來，如果葡萄酒售價更高消費者反而有可能買得更多，你爲何還要在市場上傾銷自己的葡萄酒產品呢？如果你像我一樣，你就從來不會在餐館或商店購買最廉價的葡萄酒，這倒不是因爲你能品嚐出不同價格的葡萄酒在口感上會有什麼差異，而是你不想讓人覺得你只買得起便宜貨。

Wine isn't the only market that behaves this way. For example, U.S. liberal arts colleges that raise their tuition appear to experience higher demand from future applicants, i.e. price has become a signal for quality.

並非只有葡萄酒市場才存在這種購買行爲。比如說，美國那些上調了學費的文理學院，似乎收到了更多的入學申請，也就是說，在這裏價格成了質量的象徵。

These considerations aside, do the data support the charge of dumping? Well, France accounts for the vast majority of exports to China, and the pattern of French exports to China don't show the tell-tale signs of dumping:

撇開這層考慮不說，真的有數據來支持有關歐洲在中國傾銷葡萄酒的指控嗎？誠然，歐洲出口到中國的葡萄酒大部分來自法國，但從法國對華葡萄酒出口的情況看，卻找不到傾銷的跡象。

French exports have soared but the price has stayed roughly the same. Unless the production costs of French wineries have also soared, it's difficult to see how French wineries are now selling below production costs (an element of dumping), when they weren't doing that before. Or maybe the Chinese allege French wineries have always been dumping?

法國的對華葡萄酒出口量雖然大幅飆升，但葡萄酒價格卻一直大體維持穩定。除非法國葡萄酒廠商的生產成本已有大幅增長，否則人們難以理解爲何他們以前沒有以低於成本價在中國出售葡萄酒，而現在卻是在這麼做。（以低於成本價銷售是構成傾銷的一個要件。）抑或中國人是在指稱法國葡萄酒廠商一直在中國搞傾銷？

More plausibly, sales of European wine have followed the trend of other luxury goods in China: The country's burgeoning middle class and nouveau riche want to spend more of their new-found wealth on French wine, German cars and other brand-name Western goods.

更大的可能是，歐洲葡萄酒的在華銷售遵循了其他奢侈品在中國的銷售趨勢：中國迅速壯大的中產階級和暴發戶想花更高的價錢來購買法國葡萄酒、德國轎車和其他西方名牌產品。