香港地產行業將迎來中資洗牌

Henry Keswick, chairman of Jardine Matheson, was once asked what the secret of his family conglomerate’s success was.

怡和集團(Jardine Matheson)董事局主席亨利•凱瑟克(Henry Keswick)曾被問及他的家族企業成功的祕訣是什麼。

We never sell, he replied.

他回答道：我們從不出售。

Jardines was one of colonial Hong Kong’s most powerful commercial forces and still owns the most prime office and hotel properties in the business district.

怡和集團曾是香港殖民地時期實力最強大的商界巨頭之一，如今仍擁有商務區最高檔的寫字樓和酒店。

But cornering the rents in Central was not enough to prevent the rise of the four Chinese families that have come to dominate the city’s property market.

但把控中環的租金水平不足以阻止四大華人家族的崛起，後者逐漸主導了香港的房地產市場。

The view from the Financial Times’ Hong Kong office captures the power dynamic.

從英國《金融時報》香港辦公室可以看到這種力量格局的變化。

From the 59th floor of The Center at 99 Queen’s Road Central, developed by Li Ka-shing’s property group, you can look east towards his other flagship office tower, the Cheung Kong Centre.

位於中環皇后大道中99號的中環中心是李嘉誠(Li Ka-shing)的房地產集團開發的寫字樓。從該寫字樓的59層向東望去，你可以看到李嘉誠的另一座旗艦寫字樓——長江集團中心(Cheung Kong Centre)。

Together with the Cheng family’s Grand Hyatt hotel tower and 2 International Finance Centre, developed by the Kwok brothers and Lee Shau-kee, these developments surround — and tower over — Jardines’ properties in Central.

再加上鄭氏家族的君悅酒店(Grand Hyatt)以及由郭氏兄弟和李兆基(Lee Shau-Kee)開發的國際金融中心二期(Two International Finance Centre)，這些大樓環繞在怡和大廈周邊，而且高度也都超過了怡和大廈。

But just as the Li, Cheng, Kwok and Lee families overshadow the Keswicks, there are signs that they could be eclipsed in their own backyard — this time by rivals from the mainland.

但在李嘉誠、鄭氏家族、郭氏兄弟和李氏家族的風頭蓋過凱瑟克家族之後，有跡象表明他們可能後院起火，被來自內地的競爭對手所超越。

Unlike Sir Henry, Mr Li does sell, especially when he senses that prices in a sector are reaching their peak.

與亨利爵士不同，李嘉誠會出售資產，尤其是當他感覺某個領域價格見頂的時候。

Last week Hong Kong media reported that the tycoon might sell The Center for as much as HK$35bn ($4.5bn), with those interested including a subsidiary of state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the mainland’s largest lender.

上週，香港媒體報道稱，李嘉誠可能以高達350億港元（合45億美元）的價格賣掉中環中心，感興趣的買家包括中國內地最大銀行——中國工商銀行(ICBC)的一家子公司。

If Mr Li fetches such a sum for his tallest building in Hong Kong, it would be one of his biggest asset disposals since reaping $11bn from the sale of an Indian mobile phone group to Vodafone in 2007.

如果李嘉誠以這麼高的價格賣掉他在香港的最高建築物，那將是他自2007年以110億美元向沃達豐(Vodafone)出售一家印度手機公司以來最大的資產處置活動之一。

Chinese companies have been snapping up Hong Kong office towers and European football clubs in part because of expectations that the renminbi will continue to weaken.

中國內地企業競相購買香港寫字樓和歐洲足球俱樂部，部分是出於人民幣將會持續疲弱的預期。

The same logic underlies aggressive bidding by mainland property developers at Hong Kong land auctions.

同樣邏輯促使內地房地產開發商在香港土地拍賣中激進投標。

The territory has been governed as a Chinese special administrative region since British colonial rule ended in 1997 and maintains its own currency, which is pegged to the US dollar.

自1997年英國結束其殖民統治以來，香港成爲中國的特別行政區，並保留了自己的貨幣。香港一直實行緊盯美元的聯繫匯率制。

It is likely to be some time before China Inc surpasses Hong Kong’s big four property families, just as they surpassed the old British colonial houses in the 1970s and 1980s, but the economic forces at work suggest this outcome is inevitable.

中國內地企業超越香港四大房地產家族可能還需要些時日，就像後者在上世紀七、八十年代超越英國殖民時期的洋行一樣，但其中發揮作用的經濟因素表明，這種結果不可避免。

In their most recent full-year results, the city’s four leading property developers reported total revenues of $26bn — compared with $111bn for the four largest real estate groups on the mainland.

香港4家主要房地產開發商最近的全年業績財報表明，它們的收入總和達到260億美元，而內地4家最大房地產集團的總收入是1110億美元。

If the latter want to build up their land banks in Hong Kong, they have the financial firepower to overwhelm local rivals.

如果後者想要在香港積累土地儲備，他們有足夠的財力擊敗當地競爭對手。

It is similarly telling that the three richest men in Hong Kong are on average 89-years-old with fortunes totalling $70bn — against an average 62 and $78bn for their three mainland peers.

同樣說明問題的是，香港3位最富有人士的平均年齡爲89歲，財富總計達到700億美元，而內地3位最富有人士的平均年齡是62歲，財富總額達到780億美元。

Politics is also likely to contribute to the two sets of property tycoons’ relative fortunes.

政治因素也可能造成這兩類地產巨頭彼此有別的運勢。

In Hong Kong’s first decade under Chinese sovereignty, Beijing was hypersensitive to any perception that the one country, two systems formula was not being implemented to the letter.

在香港迴歸後的頭十年，中國政府對有關香港沒有完全實施一國兩制模式的看法高度敏感。

During that time investment bankers say the central government quietly intervened behind the scenes to prevent Chinese companies from making high-profile acquisitions in Hong Kong.

投資銀行家表示，在此期間，中央政府私底下進行干預，以阻止內地公司在香港高調收購。

Ten years on, Beijing is increasingly frustrated with the territory’s democratic aspirations.

十年過去了，如今中國政府日益對香港的民主抱負感到失望。

It welcomes a more overt role for mainland companies there as part and parcel of the Sinicisation it desires.

作爲其希望推行的中國化的重要組成部分，它歡迎內地企業在香港發揮更爲明顯的作用。

The Li, Cheng, Kwok and Lee families are too entrenched — and far too rich — to fade away in Hong Kong.

李嘉誠、鄭氏家族、郭氏兄弟和李氏家族在香港過於根深蒂固——而且過於有錢——他們不可能淡出人們的視線。

In their most recently reported financial year, they reaped a total of HK$20bn in tax-free dividends from their mainly monopoly businesses.

他們在最近財年從主要壟斷企業中收穫了總計200億港元的免稅股息。

But like the Keswicks, they represent the city’s past, not its future.

但是與凱瑟克家族一樣，他們代表着香港的過去，而非未來。