內地任性資金擾動香港股市

Hong Kong’s markets have long been where east, or at least China, has met west and from where companies called Trillion Trophy Asia or Sparkle Roll, which may sound unconventional to western ears, bid for the likes of Birmingham City Football Club or Bang & Olufsen.

香港市場長期以來一直是東方（或至少是中國）與西方的相遇之處，也是Trillion Trophy Asia或耀萊集團(Sparkle Roll)——一個西方人聽起來可能不尋常的名字——等企業競購伯明翰城足球俱樂部(Birmingham City Football Club )或Bang & Olufsen等企業的地方。

The city also represents the best way of gaining broad exposure to China without facing the extreme peaks and troughs of mainland markets driven by retail investors.

這座城市還代表着獲得對中國廣泛敞口、而無需面臨內地股市由散戶投資者驅動的大上大下波動的最佳方式。

Or at least it did, until its main China index last week started diverging sharply from Shanghai and Shenzhen.

至少曾經如此，直到上週香港股市主要中國指數與滬深兩市開始大幅分離。

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 3.3 per cent last week, making it one of the worst 10 performers among global primary markets, according to Bloomberg.

據彭博(Bloomberg)數據，恆生中國企業指數(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)上週下跌3.3%，成爲全球一級市場中表現最差的十個市場之一。

Meanwhile, mainland blue-chip stocks, represented by the CSI 300, added 1.3 per cent.

同時，以滬深300(CSI 300)爲代表的內地藍籌股上升1.3%。

It was the widest performance gap between the two in six months and left watchers scrambling for explanations, since Hong Kong represents a western assumption that China’s markets will eventually focus on long-term fundamentals, not short-term momentum trading, as they mix with international norms.

這是半年來兩個指數之間的最大差距，令觀察家忙於尋找解釋，因爲香港代表着一個西方假設：隨着中國市場與國際規範接軌，它們最終將關注長期基本面因素，而不是短期動量交易。

The fundamental outlook for Chinese stocks is in fact picking up.

中國股市的基本面實際上正在好轉。

Earnings are rising, with analysts lifting forecasts on about half of companies — the most positive level since 2013, according to Société Générale.

據法國興業銀行(Société Générale)數據，企業盈利在提高，分析師提高了對半數公司的預測，達到2013年以來最積極水平。

Economic data also suggest a steadying outlook, with producer prices rising for the first time since 2012.

經濟數據也顯示前景企穩，生產者價格自2012年以來首次上升。

The Hong Kong sell-off appears to be more technical than fundamental and the biggest factor is probably China itself.

相較基本面，香港市場的拋售似乎更多是技術性的，而且最大因素可能出自中國本身。

Mainland investment now counts for as much as a quarter of Hong Kong trading, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

根據美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)數據，內地投資現在佔香港交易的四分之一之多。

In the past three months, an increase in mainland buying of Hong Kong shares through the Stock Connect link with Shanghai has been credited with lifting Hong Kong markets.

過去3個月通過滬港通購買香港股票的內地交易不斷上升，市場認爲這推動了香港市場上升。

Yet last week, for no clear reason, net purchases dropped by two-thirds from recent levels.

但上週淨購買量比近期水平下降了三分之二，沒有明顯理由。

In a market where fundamentals dominate — or at least are thought to — then technical factors are usually short-term blips.

在一個基本面主導——或至少據信如此——的市場中，技術因素通常是短期波折。

But the rise of mainland flows into Hong Kong, with all their apparent capriciousness, suggests that west must get used to meeting east, as much as the other way around.

但流入香港的內地資本上升和明顯的變化無常，似乎表明西方必須習慣於同東方接觸，反之亦然。