年中國股市的開局相當刺激

New year’s events can be anticlimactic. Not so in China where stock markets began 2016 with enough excitement to make traders choke on their bubbles: Shanghai stocks dropped 7 per cent on Monday, Shenzhen more than 8 per cent. It could have been worse. A new mechanism that suspends trading after a drop of 7 per cent halted play early — in this instance, by an hour and a half.

新年可能平淡開場。但在中國不是這樣，2016年中國股市的開局相當刺激，交易員們簡直要窒息在泡沫中：週一滬市下跌7%，深市跌幅超過了8%。情況本來可能會更糟糕。一項在滬深300指數下跌7%時暫停交易的新機制讓這場大戲提早落幕——就這次的情況而言，是提早了一個半小時。

There are no such circuit breakers in Hong Kong where the H-share index of mainland equities fell less than 4 per cent on unremarkable volumes. One might have expected more of a bloodletting. Mainland retail investors participate in both markets — a function both of Stock Connect and a leaky system — and if you can’t sell what you would like, you sell what you can. Foreign H-share investors too might be presumed sellers, having been the most bearish on China’s economy. Yet yesterday, even as Shanghai opened down a further 3 per cent (before rebounding), Hong Kong’s H shares remained resilient.

香港沒有這樣的熔斷機制，由中國內地企業股票組成的H股指數（香港恆生中國企業指數(HSCEI)）週一下跌不到4%，成交量也只是尋常。人們原本可能以爲會更加慘烈。中國內地的散戶投資者既可進入內地股市，也可進入香港股市——通過滬港通(Stock Connect)和一個有漏洞的體系——而且，如果你無法賣出你想賣的，你就賣你能賣的。一直最不看好中國經濟的H股境外投資者也可能被認爲是賣方。然而，儘管滬市週二開盤進一步下跌3%（之後出現反彈），香港的H股卻依然保持堅挺。

The clue may be in the price: the H-share index is cheap. On seven times 2016 earnings, it trades at a lower multiple than Spain (with 22 per cent unemployment), Brazil (dependent upon commodities and thus China), and both Turkey and Egypt, affected by Middle Eastern turmoil.

線索可能隱藏在價格之中：H股很便宜。H股指數市盈率爲7倍，低於西班牙（該國失業率達到22%）、巴西（該國依賴大宗商品，因而也依賴中國）以及受中東亂局影響的土耳其和埃及。

Shanghai, by comparison, trades on 12.6 times earnings. This reflects a wide (37 per cent) spread between the Shanghai’s A shares and the H-share equivalents. Before the ups and downs of 2015 it was more usually below 20 per cent, hinting at significant upside to the H-share index. True, it does not represent the best of China’s “new economy”, being heavily skewed towards banks in particular. Growth forecasts are moribund. Yet with expectations already so dire, it is hard to see how they can worsen. Even property — beset with overcapacity — has been pulling out of its slump.

相比之下，滬股市盈率爲12.6倍。這反映出A股和H股的巨大價差（37%）。在經歷2015年的跌宕起伏之前，二者價差更多時候處於20%以下——暗示H股指數大有上行空間。誠然，H股指數並不代表中國“新經濟”中最好的部分，特別是銀行股佔比偏大。增長預測十分慘淡。然而，在預期已經如此糟糕的情況下，很難想象還能壞得哪裏去。即使是受產能過剩困擾的地產業也在逐漸走出低迷。

Price is not everything, it is true. But even the bears would agree: everything has a price.

的確，價格不是一切。但即使是看空者也同意：一切都有價格。