新興市場鉅額準主權債務拉響警報
More than $800bn of emerging market sovereign debt is being camouflaged by the growing use of bonds that offer implicit state backing without always appearing on government balance sheets, according to research.
研究顯示，有超過8000億美元的新興市場主權債務僞裝成了這樣一些債券的形式——提供隱含的國家擔保，卻不總是出現在政府的資產負債表上。這些債券正在得到越來越多的使用。
The stock of so-called quasi-sovereign bonds issued in dollars and other hard currencies by emerging markets has risen sharply in the past 12 months to overtake that of all external emerging market sovereign debt by the end of 2015.
由新興市場以美元和其他硬通貨發行的所謂準主權債券的存量在過去12個月裏急劇上升，截至2015年底超過了新興市場全部主權外債的存量。
The growing use of such bonds suggests that developing countries are increasingly transferring debt obligations to third parties that have taken advantage of historically low interest rates to load up with cheap debt.
此類債券用得越來越多，似乎表明發展中國家日趨把債務轉移到第三方，由其利用處於歷史低位的利率大量舉債。
Emerging markets are already under strain as the US dollar strengthens against the renminbi and other emerging market currencies, making the cost of servicing debt denominated in dollars harder to bear.
新興市場已受到壓力，因爲美元相對於人民幣和其他新興市場貨幣走高，使美元債務的償還成本更難承受。
Although official debt-to-gross domestic product levels of countries such as India, Russia and China remain low by global standards, the growth of less visible debt they might still have to guarantee in a crisis means that their potential liabilities may be higher.
雖然印度、俄羅斯和中國等國家官方的債務與國內生產總值(GDP)之比按全球標準衡量仍然較低，但不太顯眼的債務（一旦爆發危機，它們仍可能不得不擔保此類債務）的增長意味着，它們的潛在負債水平可能更高。
“This has been a source of worry for some time, in part because it does not always appear on government balance sheets,” said Lee Buchheit, a partner at Cleary Gottlieb and expert on sovereign debt default. “Emerging markets have benefited from interest rates at historic low levels and commodity prices at historic highs. In the last year both of these have begun to unwind. If the resulting strains on a country compel a sovereign debt rearrangement of some kind, these contingent liabilities of the sovereign will need to be addressed.”
“這個問題令人憂心已經有一段時期了，這在一定程度上是因爲此類債務並不總是出現在政府的資產負債表上，”美國佳利律師事務所(Cleary Gottlieb)合夥人、主權債務違約問題專家李布赫海特(Lee Buchheit)表示，“新興市場此前受益於歷史低位的利率和歷史高位的大宗商品價格。過去一年裏，這兩方面的局面都開始逆轉。如果由此造成的壓力迫使某個國家進行某種形式的主權債務重組，該國的此類主權或有負債將需要得到處理。”
New figures from JPMorgan and Bond Radar show that issuance of quasi-sovereign bonds outpaced that of sovereign bonds in emerging markets last year, raising the stock of such debt from $710bn in 2014 to a record $839bn by the end of 2015. By comparison, the stock of all external emerging market sovereign debt stood at $750bn at the end of last year, according to JPMorgan.
來自摩根大通(JPMorgan)和Bond Radar的新數據顯示，去年新興市場的準主權債券的發行量超過主權債券，使前者的存量從2014年的7100億美元增至2015年底8390億美元的創紀錄水平。相比之下，摩根大通數據顯示，去年底新興市場全部主權外債的存量爲7500億美元。
The cost of selling bonds with either an explicit or implicit guarantee of the government is lower than other corporate bonds.
發售具有政府擔保（無論明示或是暗示）的債券的成本低於其他公司債券。
Quasi-sovereign borrowers include 100 per cent state-owned entities such as Mexico’s Pemex, local governments in countries such as China, and entities in which the government owns more than 50 per cent of the equity or has more than 50 per cent of the voting rights — a description that encompasses Brazil’s Petrobras.
準主權借款人包括100%的國有企業——如墨西哥國家石油公司(Pemex)；中國等國家的地方政府；以及政府持有50%以上股權、或有50%以上投票權的實體——這個描述適用於巴西國家石油公司(Petrobras)。
However, the treatment of such debt is not uniform. Bonds issued by Pemex are included in debt-to-GDP calculations for Mexico, but this is unusual, and only 19 of the 181 quasi-sovereign bonds tracked by JPMorgan carry an explicit sovereign guarantee.
然而，這種債務的處理並不統一。由墨西哥國家石油公司發行的債券被計入該國的債務與GDP之比計算，但這並非常態。同時，在摩根大通追蹤的181只准主權債券中，只有19只帶有明確的主權擔保。
In 2009, investors were shocked when Dubai refused to guarantee the debts of Dubai World, a state-owned holding company with $59bn in liabilities, saying it had never offered a sovereign guarantee.
2009年，迪拜拒絕擔保負債590億美元的國有控股公司迪拜世界(Dubai World)的債務，稱它從未提供主權擔保。這讓投資者震驚。
Neighbouring Abu Dhabi later provided a $10bn bailout.
其兄弟酋長國阿布扎比後來提供了100億美元紓困。
