IMF警告 歐美復甦新興市場疲軟

WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that continued weak growth in emerging economies would reduce global growth despite an improving outlook in the United States and Europe.

華盛頓——國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund，簡稱IMF）週二警告稱，儘管美國和歐洲的前景日漸改善，但新興經濟體的增長持續疲軟，可能會減緩全球增長。

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The fund unveiled its spring economic forecasts as central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financiers from around the world converged here for a week of networking, deal-making and crisis management (in the case of Greece and its continuing debt talks).

該組織發佈春季經濟展望報告之際，正值世界各地的央行行長、財長、學者和金融家齊聚在這裏，用一週的時間來建立關係網、達成協議和管理危機（後者指的是希臘及其仍在繼續的債務談判）。

The fund highlighted how high levels of debt and fragile banks, in addition to slowing emerging markets, could threaten sustained economic growth.

該組織強調，除日漸放緩的新興市場外，居高不下的債務水平和脆弱的銀行也可能會危及持續的經濟增長。

“A number of complex forces are shaping the prospects around the world,” said Olivier Blanchard, the I.M.F.‘s chief economist. “Legacies of both the financial and the euro area crises — weak banks, and high levels of public, corporate and household debt — are still weighing on spending and growth in some countries. Low growth in turn makes deleveraging a slow process.”

“一些複雜的力量正在影響世界各地的前景，”IMF首席經濟學家奧利維爾·布蘭查德(Olivier Blanchard)說。“在一些國家，金融危機和歐元區危機的影響，即脆弱的銀行和國家、企業、家庭的高額債務，依然壓制着開支和增長。低增長反過來又讓減債成了一個緩慢的過程。

The fund, which for some time has been making the case that the world’s postcrisis recovery remains uneven and fragile, made its most extreme downward growth revisions in large emerging-market economies.

國際貨幣基金組織對大型新興市場經濟體的增長預期，進行了最極端的下調。一段時間以來，該組織一直認爲，全球后危機時期的復甦依然脆弱且不均衡。

Growth forecasts for Brazil, Russia and Mexico were slashed for 2015, with a mix of uncertain politics, weak commodity prices and volatile exchange rates cited as factors.

IMF以政治局勢充滿變數、商品價格疲軟、匯率不穩定爲由，下調了巴西、俄羅斯和墨西哥2015年的增長預期。

Growth for emerging markets is expected to be 4.3 percent next year, which would make it the fifth consecutive year that activity declined compared with the previous year. Some outliers were cited: India is projected to grow at 7.5 percent this year and next, which would put it ahead of China as the fastest-growing of the large emerging markets.

新興市場明年預計會增長4.3%，這將是新興市場活力連續第五年出現同比下降。報告也提到了一些異類：印度今年和明年的增長速度預計均爲7.5%，這將使其超過中國，成爲增長最快的大型新興市場。

China, once a main driver of global growth, is now expected to grow at 6.8 percent in 2015 and 6.3 percent in 2016, with overheating property markets and questionable loans remaining concerns. Over all, the fund estimates global growth of 3.5 percent this year, increasing to 3.8 percent in 2016.

曾是全球增長主力的中國，在2015年和2016年的增長速度預計分別爲6.8%和6.3%。過熱的房地產市場和問題貸款依然是問題。總體而言，國際貨幣基金組織估計，全球今年的增速爲3.5%，2016年則將增至3.8%。

Emerging-market specialists have argued for some time that these economies are diverging. In one sector are the economies that are making economic reforms and benefiting from investor inflows, as in China, India, Indonesia and the Philippines, they say. Then there are the growth laggards, like Brazil and Russia, which have been hampered by governance problems and commodity downturns, they say.

一段時間以來，研究新興市場的專家一直稱，這些經濟體正在分化。他們表示，一類是正在進行經濟改革並受益於投資者進入的經濟體，如中國、印度、印度尼西亞和菲律賓，然後是增長落後羣體，如巴西和俄羅斯，這些經濟體受制於政府治理問題和商品價格的下降。

“Growth is harder to come by these days, and that is why lots of countries now are focusing more on reforms,” said Samy B. muaddi, an emerging markets bond manager at T. Rowe Price. The fund also upgraded its economic forecast for the eurozone, projecting growth of 1.6 percent in 2015. Economists cited the renewed sense of optimism surrounding the European Central Bank’s commitment to buy government bonds as a means to stimulate economic activity. The relatively positive outlook for Europe contrasts with the fund’s comments on Europe last fall when it took Germany to task for not doing more to jump-start a recovery in Europe.

“眼下，增長更難實現了，這正是很多國家現在把重點放在改革上的原因，”普信(T. Rowe Price)的新興市場債券經理薩米·B·穆阿迪(Samy B. Muaddi)說。IMF還上調了對歐元區的經濟預期，預計其2015年將增長1.6%。經濟學家將其歸之於歐洲央行(European Central Bank)堅決通過購買政府債券來刺激經濟活動，重新喚起了一些樂觀情緒。歐洲相對樂觀的前景，與IMF去年秋天對歐洲的評論形成了對比。當時，該組織斥責德國沒有采取更多措施推動歐洲的復甦。

Now there are strong signs of increased bank lending and economic activity in Germany, Spain and even Italy, where the policies of the new prime minister, Matteo Renzi, are having a positive effect.

如今有明顯的跡象表明，德國、西班牙乃至意大利的銀行貸款和經濟活動都增加了。意大利新一屆總理馬泰奧·倫齊(Matteo Renzi)的政策，正在發揮積極效果。

With the United States set to grow at 3.1 percent this year and next, the fund said that the large developed economies would need to assume a dominant role in driving global growth. Low interest rates and lower oil prices would help, economists said.

鑑於美國今明兩年的增長速度預期均爲3.1%，IMF稱大型發達經濟體需要在推動全球增長中承擔主導角色。經濟學家稱，低利率和石油價格下跌都會有所幫助。

The fund said that the dollar’s recent strong run could add half a percent to global growth, with the stimulative effect of weaker currencies in Japan and Europe prevailing over reduced exports in the United States.

IMF稱，美元最近的連續走強，可能會全球帶來0.5%的增長。日本和歐洲貨幣貶值的激勵效應，超過了美國出口減少的影響。

Still, as equity markets hit new highs, lifted by a wave of large-scale corporate deal making, more economists are coming around to the view that the American economy is strong enough to absorb an expected increase in interest rates this year by the Federal Reserve.

然而，隨着股票市場受一波大型企業交易浪潮的擡升而屢創新高，更多的經濟學家轉而認爲，美國經濟的強勁程度足以承受更高的利率。美聯儲(Federal Reserve)預計將在今年提高利率。

“The U.S. economy is in very good shape,” said Rick Rieder, a senior bond executive at the asset management giant BlackRock, citing the 250,000 jobs the economy has created in some months.

“美國經濟的狀態非常好，”資產管理巨頭貝萊德(BlackRock)的債券事務高管裏克·裏德(Rick Rieder)說，並例舉美國經濟在一些月份的新增工作崗位達25萬個。

Whether Greece can strike a deal with its creditors before running out of money will be a major topic of discussion this week. Many of the main players — including the Greek and German finance ministers, Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank, and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who represents European creditors — will be in town this week.

希臘能否在資金告罄前與債權人達成協議，將是本週主要的討論話題。很多主要的參與者，包括希臘和德國的財長、歐洲央行的馬里奧·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)以及代表歐洲債權人的杰倫·戴塞爾布盧姆(Jeroen Dijsselbloem)，本週都將出現在這裏。

The fund expects Greece to grow at a rate of 2.5 percent this year, a figure most economists see as wildly off the mark. The view now is that it will be lucky to grow at 1 percent this year, as deposits continue to leak from its banks in the face of fears of a messy exit from the eurozone.

IMF預計希臘今年的增長率爲2.5%，但大部分經濟學家都認爲這個數字非常不準確。在希臘，因爲擔心希臘退出歐元區引發混亂，民衆紛紛將存款從銀行取出。現在的觀點是，隨着這一形勢的繼續，希臘今年增長能有1%就算幸運了。

The two leaders in the Greek debt situation will get a chance to present their cases publicly on Thursday, when Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, and his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schäuble, are scheduled to speak, separately, at the Brookings Institution.

週四，參與希臘債務問題處理的兩名領導人——希臘財長亞尼斯·瓦魯法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)和德國的對等官員沃爾夫岡·朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Schäuble)——都將有機會公開陳述自己的觀點。兩人定於週四在布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)分別發表演講。