中國版"納斯達克"異軍突起
Investors with an appetite for China and volatility would probably enjoy this year's ride on ChiNext China's market for startups and other companies seen as high-growth.
偏好中國和波動性的投資者很可能會喜歡今年中國創業板的表現。創業板是初創企業和其他一些被視爲高增長型的公司所在的證券交易市場。
The index, known as China's 'Nasdaq,' has soared a dizzying 52% higher so far this year, while the battered Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 12%.
被稱爲中國“納斯達克”的創業板指數開年以來已經實現了眩目的52%的漲幅，而一再受挫的上海證券綜合指數(Shanghai Composite Index)則下跌了12%。
Formed in 2009 with just 28 companies, ChiNext is now home to more than 300 companies in electronics, media and other sectors seen as the face of the new, less export-driven China.
中國創業板於2009年問世，首批登陸的公司只有28家。如今，這裏有300多家公司，涉及電子產品、傳媒及其它被視爲代表了降低出口依賴的新中國經濟面貌的行業。
While large-cap energy and banking shares have stumbled on the mainland, ChiNext-listed companies have benefited from the emergence this year of new President Xi Jinping, who seems comfortable setting China on a new economic path even if overall growth slows.
在中國內地大盤能源股和銀行股暴跌之時，創業板上市的公司卻因今年習近平任中國國家主席而獲益。習主席似乎樂意看到中國經濟走上一條新路，甚至不惜總體增速放緩。
But with soaring stock prices come questionable valuations. ChiNext stocks are trading at an average 44 times earnings, versus just 10 times in Shanghai, raising the usual selloff calls from strategists.
但隨着股價飆升，創業板公司的估值水平受到質疑。這些公司的股票平均市盈率爲44倍，而上海證券交易所的平均市盈率只有10倍，引發了策略師們如常的拋售建議。
'Some of the stocks are expensive for a reason,' said Hao Hong, managing director for research at Bank of Communications International, noting that some ChiNext companies have strong growth prospects and can grow without much capital expenditure. 'Valuation wise, I think it's bubble-ish.'
交銀國際(Bank of Communications International)負責研究部的董事總經理洪灝說，有些股票貴有貴的道理。他指出，創業板一些公司有很強勁的增長前景，不用太多資本支出就可實現增長。他說，在估值方面，其認爲有泡沫。
Macquarie strategist Jiong Shiao echoed those concerns in a note to clients last week, warning that the rush to Chinese small caps has left risk at 'unprecedented' high levels.
麥格理(Macquarie)策略師邵炯在上週發給客戶的一份報告中也表達了同樣的擔心，警告說蜂擁搶購中國小盤股使風險處於空前的高位。
Selling pressure is apt to increase over the next couple of months as ChiNext approaches the peak season for restricted stock selling, Shiao noted.
邵炯指出，隨着中國創業板迎來限售股解禁拋售的高峯，未來幾個月的拋售壓力勢將增加。
He added that new issues could start flooding the market soon if the mainland lifts its current moratorium on IPOs, as expected. Roughly 75% of IPO candidates plan to list on ChiNext or Shenzen's small and medium-sized board, he said.
他還說，若中國內地如外界所料爲IPO“鬆綁”，市場可能很快就開始涌現大量新問題。他說，等待IPO的公司約有75%打算登陸創業板或深圳中小企業板。
Of course, ChiNext is no stranger to a party. Every stock on the board more than doubled on the first day of trading in October 2009, an otherwise bleak time for global markets. The good times were over by December 2010, however, as the index hit a record peak and then shed 35% by June.
當然，創業板並非第一次陷入狂歡。2009年10月創業板開盤首日，每一隻股票都上漲了一倍多，而那時正是全球市場黯淡無光的時候。不過好日子到2010年12月便結束了，創業板指數創歷史高位後，到去年6月累計下跌了35%。
'There is always a rotation going on in the China market,' Mr. Hong said.
洪灝說，中國股市總是風水輪流轉。
While still seeing opportunities on ChiNext, he expects Shanghai will shake off its slump in the second half of the year, drawing money to stocks that due to intense selling are 'so much cheaper' than their peers on ChiNext.
洪灝認爲創業板仍有機會，但他預計今年下半年上海證券交易所將走出低迷，因遭到大量拋售而遠比創業板更便宜的那些股票將吸引資金。
