中國內地股市動盪短期利好香港

With Hong Kong riven by political deadlock, politicians and investors have repeatedly warned in recent years that the financial centre risks sliding into irrelevance as its Chinese rivals Shanghai and Shenzhen go from strength to strength.

隨着香港社會因政治僵局而陷於分裂，政治人士和投資者近些年來已多次警告稱，這個金融中心有可能慢慢被邊緣化，因爲其中國內地競爭對手上海和深圳正變得越來越強大。

But some argue that China’s latest bout of stock market turmoil — and Beijing’s panicked response — has provided an unexpected boon to Hong Kong, highlighting the open nature of its financial markets and its more robust regulatory system.

但有些人辯稱，中國最新一輪股市動盪——以及北京方面驚慌失措的應對——對香港構成了一項意想不到的利好，讓人們注意到了香港金融市場的開放性和它更強健的監管體系。

“China is involuntarily sending a signal that it’s not yet ready to open its financial markets and that’s good for Hong Kong,” said the chief financial officer of one leading Hong Kong-listed company.

“中國在無意識中向外界發出了一個信號，告訴大家它還沒準備好開放其金融市場。這對香港是個利好，”一家知名香港上市公司的首席財務官說。

This attitude underlines the strange duality of Hong Kong’s economic position. On the one hand, the semi-autonomous Chinese territory’s prospects are deeply intertwined with the mainland — and it sells itself as a gateway to China. On the other, government officials and investors promote Hong Kong’s stark contrasts with China, with an independent legal system, free speech and currency pegged to the US dollar, not the renminbi.

這一態度突顯出了香港經濟地位的奇特二重性。一方面，這塊半自治中國領土的前景已與中國內地深深交織在一起，而且香港也在宣揚自己是通向中國內地的門戶。另一方面，政府官員和投資者又在兜售香港明顯不同於中國內地的地方：相對獨立的法律體系，言論自由，以及與美元而非人民幣掛鉤的港元。

Last week Beijing rushed to implement a package of measures designed to arrest the slump in Chinese stock markets, halting new share issues, banning large investors from selling stakes and pushing state-owned stock brokers and companies to buy equities.

上週，北京方面倉促實施了一系列旨在止住中國股市跌勢的措施，比如暫停新股發行，禁止大股東減持，以及推動國有券商和企業買入股票。

The Hong Kong government, by contrast, sat on the sidelines, even as the sell-off on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges prompted large falls in Hong Kong-listed shares.

與此形成對照的是，就在滬深股市的拋售行爲導致香港上市公司股價大跌之際，香港政府卻並未插手干預。

Although Hong Kong pulled off the textbook government rescue of a collapsing stock market in 1997, the government’s top financial official said on Friday he had no intention of intervening this time.

儘管1997年香港政府成功實施了教科書般的救市、止住了股市的狂瀉，但香港政府最高財政長官上週五卻表示，這一次他不打算出手干預。

“Whatever happens in other markets will have an impact on Hong Kong, which is a very externally oriented market,” said John Tsang, financial secretary. “But we conduct our regulatory practices in a mature and sophisticated way.”

“香港是一個非常外向型的市場，所以無論其他市場發生什麼，都會對香港造成影響，”香港財政司司長曾俊華(John Tsang)說，“但我們開展監管實踐的方式成熟而老練。”

Francis Cheung, head of China and Hong Kong strategy at CLSA, a stock broker, said Hong Kong enjoyed a short-term benefit “any time China screws up” because investors were reminded of the former British colony’s far stronger regulatory framework.

里昂證券(CLSA)中國與香港策略主管鄭名凱(Francis Cheung)表示，“每當中國玩砸了的時候”，都會在短期內利好香港，因爲那會讓投資者重新意識到這塊前英國殖民地有着強健得多的監管框架。

However, he added that in the long term Hong Kong’s fortunes as a financial centre would inevitably be tied up with mainland China, not least because the city is in the process of integrating its stock exchange with the Chinese bourses in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

但他補充道，長遠來看，香港作爲金融中心的命運將不可避免地與中國內地捆綁在一起，一個重要原因在於，香港的證券交易所正在與上海和深圳的證券交易所進行融合。

Vincent Chan, head of China research for Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, also argued that any benefits for Hong Kong from China’s woes would be short-lived.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)駐香港的中國研究主管陳昌華(Vincent Chan)也辯稱，香港從中國內地困境中獲得的任何好處都將是暫時的。

He said the wide-ranging Chinese intervention in the stock market made investors nervous about the direction of Beijing’s policy, coming in spite of repeated statements from Chinese officials that they wanted to accelerate the opening-up of the economy and financial services.

他表示，儘管中國官員反覆宣稱希望加快經濟和金融服務業的開放，但他們還是對股市展開了廣泛干預，這令投資者對北京方面的政策方向感到擔心。

Such concerns were likely to be negative for Hong Kong, he said, given that most foreign investors buy Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, known as H shares, rather than those listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, known as A shares.

他說，考慮到投資在港上市的中國股票（即H股）的外國投資者爲數衆多，上面這種擔心很可能會給香港帶來負面影響。

But although the Chinese and Hong Kong governments are pursuing a long-term goal of economic and financial integration, investors will continue to assess the risks of doing business in the mainland and in Hong Kong differently.

不過，儘管中國政府與香港政府正在追求經濟與金融一體化的長期目標，投資者仍將對中國內地和香港的營商風險給出不同的評價。

“There’s still a difference in governance and the mechanisms in Shenzhen and Shanghai compared with Hong Kong, and investors understand the risks,” said Edward Au, an auditor at Deloitte who advises Chinese companies on overseas listings.

“在治理和機制上，滬深與香港仍然存在差別，投資者明白這種風險，”德勤(Deloitte)負責爲中國企業海外上市提供諮詢的審計師Edward Au表示。