強勢美元使美聯儲面臨兩難
The euro fell closer to parity with the dollar yesterday, as the US currency’s strength heightened the policy conundrum facing the US Federal Reserve as it prepares for its first interest-rate rise in nearly a decade.
The euro dipped under $1.06 as Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, credited the cheap single currency with helping the reversal in the eurozone’s slowdown and said euro area developments are “pointing in the right direction”.
歐元兌美元匯率跌破1歐元兌1.06美元水平。歐洲央行(ECB)行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)認爲廉價的單一貨幣有助於逆轉歐元區經濟放緩，稱歐元區各項發展正“指向正確的方向”。The moves come as the Fed prepares for a key policy meeting next week at which it is expected to lay the groundwork for a rate rise as soon as June by dropping a pledge to be “patient”. The dollar is rising in part because of the prospect of higher interest rates and stronger growth. That is squeezing earnings of exporters and US companies with large global operations, and could damp inflation as import prices fall.
此舉正值美聯儲準備下周舉行關鍵的政策會議，預計美聯儲屆時將摒棄“耐心”承諾，爲最早於6月開始加息鋪平道路。美元走強的部分原因在於人們對加息以及更強勁增長的展望。這擠壓着出口商及擁有大規模全球業務的美國企業的利潤空間，並可能隨着進口價格的下降而壓低通脹。
Some US policy makers concede that the value of the greenback has triggered concern among corporations. James Bullard, president of the St Louis Fed, told the Financial Times he could understand some of the “consternation” but that big companies can hedge their currency exposure. The bulk of the dollar gains may have happened, he added.
美國一些政策制定者承認，美元匯率已經在企業界引發憂慮。聖路易斯聯儲(St Louis Fed)行長詹姆士•布拉德(James Bullard)向英國《金融時報》(Financial Times)表示，他可以理解某些“恐慌”，但是大企業可以對衝其匯率風險敞口。他補充稱，美元上漲的大部分可能已經發生。“We are trying to run the best monetary policy for the United States that we can,” he said, warning that an interest rate rise was already overdue. “We are going to let the exchange rate go where it needs to go to equilibrate international markets.”
“我們正在試圖實行對美國最有利的貨幣政策，”他表示。他警告稱，加息的時機已經晚了一點。“我們會讓匯率向着平衡國際市場的方向發展。”Gary Cohn, president and chief operating officer at Goldman Sachs, said the foreign exchange moves were putting the Fed in “a very tough position”.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)總裁兼首席運營官蓋瑞•柯恩(Gary Cohn)稱，匯市變動將美聯儲置於“一個非常艱難的境地”。He added: “The Fed is going to be continuously in this tough dilemma where they are going to want to raise interest rates — and I fundamentally understand why they want to raise interest rates — but they are going to be constrained by circumstances and be concerned by the strength of the dollar, and other countries around the world are going to continue to devalue,” he said.
他補充稱：“美聯儲將繼續處於這種艱難的進退兩難之地，一方面想要加息——我從根本上能理解他們爲什麼想要加息——但另一方面受到實際情況的制約，並對美元走強、而世界其他國家會繼續貶值感到擔憂。”Chris Williamson of Markit, who forecast in December that the euro would reach parity against the dollar this year, said: “The Fed looking like it was going to raise rates in 2015 was always going to hit the exchange rate. The clear divergence between the US central bank and the ECB is the big market play in 2015.”
Markit的克里斯•威廉姆森(Chris Williamson)曾在去年12月預測，歐元將在今年觸及與美元平價的水平。他稱：“美聯儲看起來將在2015年加息，這必然會影響匯率。美國央行與歐洲央行之間的明顯分化將是2015年的市場主旋律。”The single currency’s depreciation, alongside lower oil prices and the bank’s quantitative easing programme, had led ECB economists to upgrade their economic forecasts, Mr Draghi said at a conference in Frankfurt.
德拉吉在法蘭克福一個會議上稱，歐元貶值，再加上油價下跌以及歐洲央行啓動量化寬鬆計劃，已促使歐洲央行的經濟學家上調了他們的經濟預測。The euro fell 1.6 per cent yesterday to a 12-year low of $1.0524 and has dropped 12 per cent since the start of the year. The dollar index, measuring the currency against a basket of its major peers, rose nearly 0.9 per cent to a 12-year high of 99.649.
昨天，歐元兌美元匯率下跌1.6%，至1歐元兌1.0524美元的12年低點，今年迄今已下跌12%。衡量美元對一籃子主要貨幣匯率變化的美元指數上漲近0.9%，至99.649的12年高點。The ECB now expects growth of 1.5 per cent this year, up from a December estimate of 1 per cent.
歐洲央行現在預計今年歐元區的增長率爲1.5%，高於去年12月預測的1%。
