新興市場難逃美聯儲影響

Investors are increasingly disillusioned with extreme monetary policies, the pace of economic growth and the performance of equities in developed markets.

投資者越來越對發達市場的極端貨幣政策、經濟增長速度和股市表現感到失望。

In virtually every country where central banks have moved interest rates into negative territory, equities have suffered.

在央行推行負利率的幾乎所有國家裏，股市都表現不佳。

The most dramatic example is Japan’s Topix index, which is down over 15 per cent this year.

最引人注目的例子是日本的東證指數(Topix)，該指數今年以來下跌逾15%。

At the same time, cheap funding is not enticing companies in developed economies to invest.

與此同時，廉價資金並沒有吸引發達經濟體的企業投資。

Capex in developed economies is currently contracting at an estimated 3 per cent rate, according to data from JPMorgan.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)的數據顯示，發達經濟體的資本性支出目前以大約3%的速度收縮。

Emerging markets have, of late, performed better on a relative basis — both measured by economic growth and asset prices.

無論是從經濟增長還是從資產價格衡量，新興市場最近的表現都相對好一些。

EM shares have registered a far more respectable showing than developed markets.

新興市場股市的表現比發達市場好得多。

Indeed, so far this year, EM bonds and equities are four of the top six performers globally.

實際上，今年迄今爲止，新興市場的債券和股票在全球6大最佳表現者中佔據了4席。

There is concern that the recent gains are merely the product of central bank largesse in several developed economies.

人們擔心，最近的上漲只是數個發達經濟體央行大手筆寬鬆政策的結果。

Indeed, the best performance has come from some of the hardest hit markets — Brazil and Russia among them.

實際上，包括巴西和俄羅斯在內的一些之前遭受衝擊最嚴重的市場表現最佳。

The Turkish lira, for example, dropped over 7 per cent in the wake of the attempted coup but has since recovered more than half those losses.

例如，土耳其里拉在未遂政變之後下跌逾7%，但此後收復了逾一半的跌幅。

Both the recent data and the outlook for economic prospects in emerging markets for the next few months look attractive, especially in east Asia.

新興市場無論是最近的數據還是未來幾個月的經濟前景展望看起來都頗具吸引力，尤其是東亞。

For decades, manufacturing for export has been the lifeblood of east Asia.

幾十年來，製造業出口一直是東亞的生命線。

Now, the great exporters of that region are in a sweet spot again, having achieved an improvement in both industrial production and the level of their exports.

如今，該地區的大型出口國再次處於有利地位，無論是工業生產還是出口規模全都出現提升。

Business spending in emerging markets is tracking a 7.5 per cent gain, after a big drop in the first quarter, and despite higher interest rates in that part of the world.

新興市場的企業支出在第一季度大幅下降之後，錄得7.5%的增幅，儘管該地區利率更高。

Production in east Asia has increasingly come to mean technology.

東亞生產活動的科技含量越來越高。

Regional tech output was up 7 per cent the three months to July from a year earlier.

在截至今年7月的3個月裏，該地區的科技產值同比增長7%。

Taiwan’s exports registered growth of more than 5 per cent in July, much stronger than forecast.

臺灣出口今年7月錄得逾5%的增長，遠超預期。

Most economists expect tech to be one of the few real sources of growth in China in coming months.

大多數經濟學家預計，科技是未來幾個月中國少數幾個真實增長源泉之一。

But how lasting will the pick-up prove to be, especially in a world where developed markets have had no growth in business spending? Is consumer spending in the big developed markets, especially the US, a sufficient catalyst for a lasting increase in activity for east Asian manufacturing?

但這種回暖將會持續多久，尤其是在一個發達市場企業支出沒有任何增長的世界裏？大型發達市場（尤其是美國）的消費者支出足以催化東亞製造業活動持續增長嗎？

Economists such as Sin Beng Ong, regional economist for JPMorgan in Singapore, fear the lift from tech in east Asia will prove temporary.

摩根大通駐新加坡的地區經濟學家Sin Beng Ong等經濟學家擔心，事實將會證明科技給東亞經濟帶來的提升將是暫時的。

Developed market capex drove Asia.

他說：發達市場的資本性支出推動了亞洲的增長。

The tech cycle in Asia mirrors the weakness in capex in developed markets, he says.

亞洲的科技週期映射出發達市場資本性支出的疲弱。

The productivity gains from investing in tech have gone down.

投資科技獲得的生產率改善已經下降。

There will be a periodic increase in activity but then it will die down; you will see fluctuations around a flattish line-not an ascending line, as was the case prior to the 2008 financial crisis.

製造業活動將會間歇性增長，但隨後就會減弱；你將會看到圍繞一條平直線、而非上行線的波動，就像2008年金融危機之前那樣。

Moreover, apart from technology, production in the region generally remains stagnant.

此外，除了科技業以外，該地區的生產活動依然普遍停滯不前。

And despite the bright spot in technology in east Asia, the region remains vulnerable to any shifts in monetary policy in developed economies.

儘管東亞科技業存在亮點，但該地區依然容易遭受發達經濟體貨幣政策變化的影響。

Economic fundamentals matter less everywhere in a world in which central bankers in developed economies adopt what used to be considered extreme monetary policies in an effort to devalue their own currencies and stoke inflationary fires.

在一個發達經濟體央行推行曾被視爲極端的貨幣政策以使本幣貶值並刺激通脹的世界裏，經濟基本面在哪裏都沒那麼重要。

Who could blame their counterparts in emerging markets should they seek to ease their own cost of money.

如果新興市場央行尋求緩解自己的資金成本，誰又能去責備他們。

The Fed has always believed that rate increases and normalisation were around the corner but never been able to deliver, Larry Summers noted in a blog following the symposium of central bankers late last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

在上週晚些時候在美國懷俄明州傑克遜霍爾(Jackson Hole)舉行的全球央行年度研討會之後，拉里•薩默斯(Larry Summers)發表博客文章指出：美聯儲始終認爲，加息和政策正常化就在眼前，但從未能夠實現。

When the Fed predicted last December that it would raise rates four times in 2016, market participants saw a disconnect from reality.

當美聯儲去年12月預計將在2016年4次加息的時候，市場人士認爲這與現實脫節。

Still, if the Fed ever does lift rates again, however incrementally, east Asia is still vulnerable to a repeat of the taper tantrum of three years ago that unfolded after Ben Bernanke, the then-Fed chairman, signalled that the US central bank would scale back its quantitative easing.

然而，如果美聯儲真的再次加息，無論幅度多麼小，東亞仍容易受3年前的削減恐慌(taper tantrum)重現的影響。當時時任美聯儲主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)暗示稱，美聯儲將會縮減其量化寬鬆規模，引發削減恐慌。

Whatever the fundamentals, this is a world in which the monetary policy in developed economies still holds dangerous sway.

無論基本面如何，這是一個發達經濟體貨幣政策仍掌握着危險影響力的世界。