年美國就業形勢相當看好

Plenty of dark clouds loom over the U.S. job market -- particularly the potential double-punch of tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff.[qh]

美國就業市場籠罩着重重陰雲──特別是遭遇增稅、減支雙重打擊的可能性，即“財政懸崖”。[qh]

But if the U.S. can avert that Washington-made crisis, the outlook for workers finding jobs is actually looking pretty good for next year. For one thing, the damage of superstorm Sandy will have to be repaired, meaning jobs in construction and retail. Businesses, meanwhile, which have held off investing and hiring because of uncertainty over the fiscal outlook, might finally open their wallets. That means more jobs, too.[qh]

但如果美國能夠避開由華盛頓造成的這一危機，明年勞動者找工作的前景實際上還相當不錯。首先，超級颶風“桑迪”(Sandy)造成的破壞將需要修復，這樣就會帶來建築業和零售業的工作機會。與此同時，因爲財政前景的不確定性而暫停投資和招聘和企業可能最終打開錢包。這也意味着會有新的就業機會出現。[qh]

Employers have stepped up their hiring recently, adding 171,000 jobs in October and an average of 157,000 a month so far this year. That's a better pace than last year and the strongest job growth since 2006, Labor Department data show.[qh]

最近僱主已經加大招聘力度。勞工部數據顯示，10月份新增就業崗位17.1萬個，今年以來平均每個月增加15.7萬個。這個速度高於去年，並且是2006年以來最強勁的就業增長。[qh]

Of course, the recovery of the job market has been, and probably will remain, incremental. Job growth needs to be much stronger to actually make a big dent in unemployment, which remains high at 7.9%, though down from 10% three years ago.[qh]

當然，勞動力市場的復甦一直是漸進的，並可能保持這種狀況。就業增長速度就需要在目前基礎上大大提高，才能讓失業率真正大爲改觀。失業率雖然低於三年前的10%，現在仍然高達7.9%。[qh]

The government's next snapshot of the job market, due Friday, will be distorted by Sandy, which devastated the Northeast in late October, leaving many jobless. Economists say Sandy could temporarily knock anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 off of the government's jobs tally for November, resulting in job growth of under 100,000 or even much less.[qh]

政府將於本週五發佈新的就業市場報告，此次的報告將因颶風“桑迪”而出現失真。10月下旬的颶風給東北地區造成嚴重破壞，使很多人失業。經濟學家說，“桑迪”有可能導致11月官方就業崗位總數暫時減少10萬到15萬個，這樣一來，就業增量就不足10萬，甚至還要低很多。[qh]

But economists generally expect the momentum of the recent past to resume and continue once storm distortions abate. The 45 economists who responded to The Wall Street Journal's latest monthly forecasting survey saw the jobless rate falling to 7.8% by next June and 7.5% by the end of 2013. Some say job growth could accelerate from its slow pace. 'I think businesses are going to have to hire,' said Bob Baur, an economist with Principal Global Investors.[qh]

但經濟學家總體上預計，一旦颶風造成的失真消失，前段時間的趨勢就有望恢復並延續。接受《華爾街日報》最新月度調查的45位經濟學家預計，到明年6月，失業率將降至7.8%，2013年年底將降至7.5%。部分經濟學家說，就業增長可能會擺脫現在的緩慢速度而加快。信安環球投資有限公司(Principal Global Investors)經濟學家鮑爾(Bob Baur)說，我覺得到時候企業將必須招人。[qh]

Four factors should fuel the jobs recovery in 2013:[qh]

以下四個因素應該會對2013年的就業復甦起到推動作用：[qh]

Housing is finally recovering. Home values are up 7% nationally through the first nine months of 2012, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Meanwhile, home-building is gaining traction, which means more jobs for construction workers, contractors and builders. Some 29,000 new construction jobs have been added since May. There's 'a significant thawing in labor conditions in the construction market,' notes Andrew Wilkinson, economist at Miller Tabak & Co. It's not just construction crews. Retailers who cater to Americans furnishing, repairing and improving their homes also will need to hire.[qh]

樓市終於出現反彈。S&P/Case-Shiller指數顯示，2012年前九個月全國房價上漲7%。與此同時，住宅建築業正在發力，給建築工人、承包商和建築商帶來了更多工作機會。5月份以來建築工作增加了2.9萬個左右。券商Miller Tabak & Co.經濟學家威爾金森(Andrew Wilkinson)指出，建築市場的就業環境已經明顯解凍。解凍的不只是建築業。爲裝修住宅的美國人提供服務的零售企業也將需要招人。[qh]

Federal, state and local government job cutbacks are slowing. More than 250,000 workers at all levels of government lost jobs last year. This year, so far, about 20,000 have gained jobs. Worries about the nation's debt and deficits likely will keep a lid on government spending and investments, economists say, but any jumps in, say, infrastructure spending would create jobs. At the least, government will be less of a drag.[qh]

聯邦、州和地方政府的裁員速度開始放緩。去年各級政府部門有逾25萬人失去工作。今年截至目前，約有兩萬人找到了工作。經濟學家說，美國的債務和赤字問題引發的擔憂可能將限制政府支出和投資，但基礎設施支出的任何反彈都會創造就業崗位。至少政府帶來的拖累會減小。[qh]

Consumers are feeling better. Consumer confidence is at the highest level in four years, thanks to improvements in jobs, housing and the stock market. In the wake of the recession, Americans whittled down their debts, avoided borrowing and delayed purchases. That means the stage could be set for stronger consumer demand, which could nudge businesses that have put off hiring to add more workers. 'Business has likely pushed productivity growth as far as possible,' Principal Global's Mr. Baur says, suggesting employers will need to boost payrolls to meet stronger demand.[qh]

消費者的感覺變好。由於就業市場、樓市和股市狀況的改善，消費者信心達到四年來的最高水平。美國陷入衰退後，美國人縮減債務，避免借錢並推遲購買。這意味着消費者需求增強的條件可能已經具備，進而可能促使停止招聘的企業開始擴員。信安環球投資有限公司的鮑爾說，企業可能儘可能地提高生產力增長，他表示僱主將需要增員來滿足更強勁的需求。qh]

Manufacturing and sectors like leisure and hospitality should keep creating jobs. America's factories drove the early part of the U.S. recovery and, although growth has slowed, they should continue to add workers selectively. After adding about 9,000 jobs a month in 2010, manufacturing has added about 16,000 jobs a month so far this year. Slowdowns in Europe, Japan and fast-growing China have hurt global trade flows. But lately, more corporate executives are realizing that making things in the U.S. has benefits over, say, China. Meanwhile, the leisure sector, including restaurants, has been a reliable source of job growth all year.[qh]

製造業及休閒和酒店服務業應會繼續創造就業崗位。美國的工廠是復甦早期的推動者，儘管增長放緩，工廠應該會繼續有選擇地擴員。繼2010年每月增加約9,000個就業崗位之後，今年以來製造業每月增加約1.6萬個就業崗位。歐洲、日本和中國經濟增長放緩損害了全球貿易流。但最近，更多公司高管開始意識到，在美國製造比在中國等地製造好處更多。與此同時，包括酒店在內的休閒服務業整年都是就業崗位增長的一個可靠來源。[qh]

The job market faces challenges. Some five million Americans have been out of work for six months, raising the risk their skills will erode and make it even harder for them to find jobs down the road. And fears of slowing revenue growth could keep a lid on hiring by companies. About 36% of U.S. executives expect the head count at their firm to fall, according to an October survey by advisory firm CEB, compared with 29% who said that during the summer.[qh]

就業市場面臨着挑戰。約有500萬美國人失業已有六個月之久，技能退化令他們未來更難找到工作的風險也加大。此外，收入增長放緩引發的擔憂可能會限制企業招聘。據諮詢公司CEB今年10月進行的一項調查顯示，約有36%的美國高管預計其公司的職員人數會減少；相比之下，今年夏天這一比例爲29%。[qh]

Still, the optimistic view is that several roadblocks to recovery -- an over-indebted consumer, a moribund housing market and shellshocked banks -- are no longer holding back hiring. Barring an unforeseen shock to the economy, this could mean 2013 will be another year of slow but steady growth.[qh]

不過，從樂觀角度看，阻礙復甦的幾個攔路虎──身負重債的消費者、半死不活的樓市和心有餘悸的銀行──已經不再對招聘造成負面影響。除非經濟受到意外的打擊，否則這可能意味着2013年將又是一個緩慢但穩定的增長之年。[qh]