短線觀點 中國降息能否提振經濟
Does China have a sherbet lemon economy? Like the boiled sweet, China’s landing may be hard on the outside, but soft in the middle.
中國經濟是否像是檸檬雪寶糖？就像這種外面硬裏面軟的糖一樣，中國經濟的“着陸”可能外面堅硬，但裏面柔軟。
Suppliers to the country know how hard it is on the outside. Brazil’s real is down a quarter against the dollar this year, while the Australian dollar has tumbled 12 per cent, hit by weaker Chinese demand for commodities.
向中國供應原材料的國家知道外面有多堅硬。受中國大宗商品需求下滑影響，巴西雷亞爾兌美元匯率今年下跌25%，澳元兌美元匯率下挫12%。
The question is whether it is soft inside. Stephen Jen of hedge fund SLJ Macro thinks that urban jobs show China is having some success in switching from infrastructure and industry towards services and consumption.
問題是裏面是否柔軟。對衝基金SLJ Macro的任永力(Stephen Jen)認爲，城鎮就業數據顯示，在從基礎設施和工業轉向服務業和消費方面，中國正取得一些成功。
The old economy is clearly struggling, as relatively reliable measures such as electricity consumption and rail freight show. But Chinese labour data are dubious at best; the official urban unemployment rate has been between 4 and 4.3 per cent since 2004, and other measures are questionable, too. Yesterday China cut rates and made it easier for banks to lend — a sign of concern about the economy.
舊經濟顯然在掙扎，就像耗電量和鐵路運輸等相對可靠的指標所顯示的那樣。但中國的勞動力數據往好了說只能讓人半信半疑；自2004年以來，官方城市失業率一直介於4%至4.3%之間，其他指標也有問題。週二，中國降息並讓銀行更容易放貸，這一跡象表明，官方對經濟感到擔憂。
The easing came after the close of another awful day for Chinese shares, with more than eight in 10 stocks down by the daily limit of a tenth.
此前中國股市經歷了又一個糟糕的交易日，超過80%的股票跌停。
A fortnight ago, China’s devaluation was taken badly by international investors, and this week’s carnage in global equities followed Monday’s crash in Chinese shares.
兩週前，中國下調人民幣匯率令國際投資者感到震驚，本週全球股市下跌也是步中國股市週一暴跌的後塵。
On Tuesday, investors saw things quite differently, with commodities and shares outside China leaping.
週二，投資者的想法變得不一樣了，大宗商品價格和中國以外的股市出現上漲。
One popular account says China is doing something to boost its economy, so the rate cut is good news even if it means further devaluation (the renminbi fell to its weakest level since August 2011).
一種流行的說法是，中國正爲提振經濟採取措施，因此降息是個好消息，即使這意味着人民幣繼續貶值（人民幣匯率降至自2011年8月以來最低水平）。
I prefer to focus on sentiment. The new currency regime shocked investors who had ignored China’s equity boom and bust this year. On Monday, traders were already jittery after Friday’s plunge in US shares, so little was needed to prompt a painful unwinding of leveraged trades.
我更傾向於關注情緒。新的匯率形成機制讓此前忽視中國股市今年漲跌的投資者感到震驚。本週一，交易員們在上週五美國股市暴跌之後已經緊張不安，因此不用什麼就足以促使他們痛苦地解除槓桿交易頭寸。
But on Tuesday the global sell-off had become too extreme, with markets falling too far, too fast. A bounce was already well under way when China eased, with investors prepared to look on the bright side of the policy.
但週二的全球拋售變得過於極端，市場下跌過快過猛。在中國宣佈降息之際，反彈已經展開，投資者準備關注政策的積極一面。
Will easier money succeed in giving China’s economy a sugar rush, though? Investors will have to suck it and see.
然而，更爲寬鬆的資金將會成功給予中國經濟短暫提振嗎？投資者將不得不拭目以待。
