短線觀點 香港的美元困境
Pity the Hong Kong authorities. No one is quite as trapped between the conflicting forces of China’s slowdown and the expected US interest rate rise as a territory with its future tied to China and its currency pegged to the US dollar.
可憐的香港當局！沒有哪個地區像香港這樣，受到中國內地經濟增長放緩和美國加息預期這兩個互相沖突因素的夾擊，因爲香港的未來是與中國內地掛鉤，而其貨幣卻與美元掛鉤。
Add in surging demand for Hong Kong dollars triggered by record turnover in the city’s stock market and inevitably questions arise about the suitability, and the sustainability, of the tight 32-year-old currency peg. Last week, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened in the markets to maintain the peg for the first time since last August. Yesterday, Norman Chan, HKMA chief executive, said the stock market rally produced $4.4bn of inflows last week. By comparison, the HKMA spent about $1.3bn in total last August on its market actions.
再考慮到香港股市創紀錄的成交量引發的港元需求飆升，人們不免會問，香港實施了32年之久的港元緊盯美元政策是否適宜、能否持續。上週，香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)入市干預，以維繫聯繫匯率制，這是去年8月以來的首次。週三，香港金管局總裁陳德霖(Norman Chan)表示，上週股市反彈導致44億美元的資金流入。相比之下，去年8月，香港金管局在其干預市場的行動中總共才耗費約13億美元。The case against a dollar peg is growing. It is not hard to argue that easy US monetary policy has produced bubbles in Hong Kong, most notably in property. Overall, the ratio of credit to gross domestic product has roughly doubled since the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing began.
反對港元盯住美元的理由正變得日益強大，有一點很難否認，就是美國寬鬆貨幣政策在香港催生了泡沫，最明顯的就是在房地產行業。總體而言，自美聯儲(Fed)啓動量化寬鬆政策以來，香港信貸與本地生產總值(GDP)之比已上升了約一倍。
Trade links between Hong Kong and the US are falling as China rises, too. The US now accounts for 5 per cent of Hong Kong’s business, down from 20 per cent when the peg was introduced, according to BNY Mellon. China, meanwhile, accounts for a full quarter, up from 15 per cent.
此外，隨着中國內地的崛起，香港與美國的貿易往來正在減弱。紐銀梅隆(BNY Mellon)數據顯示，與美國的貿易往來現佔香港對外貿易往來的5%，而聯繫匯率制推出時爲20%；另一方面，與中國內地的貿易往來現在佔25%，聯繫匯率制推出時爲15%。More prosaically, traders point out that if the Swiss can shock the market by abruptly removing their currency cap as they did in January, why might not Hong Kong suddenly announce it will peg instead to the renminbi?
交易員更乾巴巴地指出，如果瑞士可以出乎市場意料，突然取消瑞士法郎匯率上限（就像今年1月他們所做的那樣），爲什麼香港就不可以突然宣佈港元改與人民幣掛鉤呢？However, a peg shift seems unlikely for now, not least because there are not enough renminbi outside China to replace the HKMA’s $332bn in reserves.
然而，就目前而言，港元似乎不太可能變更所盯緊的貨幣，一個重要原因是，中國內地以外沒有足夠多的人民幣來替代香港金管局的3320億美元外匯儲備。The more general argument is simpler — if it ain’t broke, don’t expect it to be fixed soon. A peg that has weathered the handover of Hong Kong to China, the Asian financial crisis, Sars and the global financial crisis has market credibility that Hong Kong should be loath to lose. The HKMA warned last month about the risk of rising volatility in Hong Kong — and it was right. With China still slowing and US rate expectations at the mercy of each new piece of economic data, more swings can be expected as well as more talk about the dollar peg. But actual change is less likely.
大的道理則更爲簡單明瞭：如果東西沒壞，就別指望很快會有人修。港元盯住美元的聯繫匯率制經受住了香港主權移交、亞洲金融危機、非典(Sars)疫情以及此次全球金融危機的考驗，這一制度得到市場的信賴，香港想必不願失去這種可信性。香港金管局上月就香港波動性上升風險發出了警告，這是正確的。由於中國內地經濟仍在放緩，而美國的利率預期將取決於接下來要發佈的每一個經濟數據，因此可以預料到香港市場將出現更多波動，圍繞港元盯住美元的爭論也會增多。但真正的改變卻不太可能發生。
