短線觀點 令人擔憂的中國債市
Stand easy — or easier, at least. Ten basis points might not be the biggest one-day change for borrowing costs in China’s vast $7tn bond markets, but it was enough on Monday to push the country’s closely watched onshore repo rate back from an eight-month high. That offers a little breathing space for investors to ponder what next for the rising tensions in onshore bond markets. One point to look at is their own leverage as well as their fears for companies.
別緊張，或者至少稍微放鬆一點。在中國規模龐大的7萬億美元的債券市場上，10個基點或許不是借貸成本最大的單日波動，但在本週一，這種波動卻足以讓中國受到密切關注的在岸回購利率從8個月高點回落。這爲投資者提供了少許喘息空間，讓他們能夠思考日益緊張的在岸債券市場接下來的走勢。現在需要考慮的一點是他們自己的槓桿以及他們對企業的擔憂。
Bond yields in China have jumped. This month, China’s five-year government bond yields have risen 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent — their worst monthly performance in a year. Defaults by two state-owned groups have raised fears that others could follow suit. All this has added roughly half a percentage point this month alone for high-quality borrowers onshore. Spooked by this, companies have so far suspended plans for an estimated $10bn in expected bond issuance.
中國債券收益率已大幅飆升。本月，中國5年期國債收益率上升25個基點，至2.75%，創出一年來最爲糟糕的月度表現。兩家國有企業的違約不禁讓人們擔心接下來可能還會有其他國企違約。所有這些僅在本月就讓境內優質借款人額外增加了約半個百分點的成本。受此影響，企業迄今暫停了大約100億美元的債券發行計劃。
Amid all the furore about the pain of rising rates, one so-far overlooked factor is that investors, as well as companies, appear precariously balanced. The market for pledge-style repos — short-term, bond-backed loans — is currently bigger than the stock of outstanding debt, according to Wind Info. A sharp worsening in market sentiment could force those borrowers into fire sales if their loans are called or cannot be rolled over. And the bond fund inflows that followed last summer’s stock market rout are also at risk of reversing. Since China’s bond markets are not as liquid as their size suggests, fund managers facing redemptions could be forced to dump what they can, not what they should.
雖然投資者對利率上升導致成本增加感到憤怒，但一個迄今被忽視的因素是，投資者以及企業似乎隨時有可能失去平衡。萬得資訊(Wind Info)的數據顯示，質押式回購市場（以債券爲抵押的短期貸款）當前的規模超過了已發行債券的存量。市場情緒急劇惡化可能會迫使那些借款人在面臨貸款被催還或無法展期的情況下賤賣債券。去年夏季股市暴跌之後流入債市的資金也面臨流出風險。既然中國債券市場的流動性不像其規模顯示的那麼大，面臨贖回的基金經理可能被迫要拋售他們能夠拋得掉的，而不是他們應該拋售的。
This potential for a market rout makes the benchmark seven-day repo rate more important than ever. Considered by many a gauge of official views on the health of the money market, it reached 2.55 per cent on Friday before dropping to 2.45 per cent on Monday. So long as the People’s Bank of China injects enough money to keep the rate roughly in its range between 2.25 and 2.5 per cent, the worst sell-off fears should be kept at bay. But if it moves, and stays, sharply higher leveraged investors will be in for a shock. And given the impact that any Chinese turmoil now has on world markets, that means investors elsewhere too.
這種市場崩盤的風險讓基準的7天回購利率變得前所未有的重要。許多人認爲從7天回購利率可以看出官方對貨幣市場健康狀況的看法。上週五該利率達到2.55%，隨後在本週一回落至2.45%。只要中國央行注入足夠的資金，將該利率大致維持在2.25%至2.5%的區間內，就不會出現最糟糕的拋售情形。但是如果該利率超出並保持在該區間之外，槓桿急劇增加的投資者將會受到衝擊。鑑於現在中國市場的任何動盪都會對世界市場造成影響，這意味着其他地方的投資者也會遭受衝擊。
