短線觀點 拿什麼拯救鐵礦石

The prize for the worst performing major commodity of 2014 goes to . . .

2014年度“表現最差大宗商品獎”的得主是……

If you thought the answer was oil, you would be wrong. Crude’s vertiginous fall since June may have grabbed the headlines, but as the year draws to a close, iron ore is on track to take the unwanted accolade.

如果你以爲答案是石油，那你就錯了。原油價格自6月以來令人眩暈的下跌或許搶佔了媒體的頭條，但在臨近年末之際盤點這一年的情況，這頂不受歡迎的桂冠應該會戴到鐵礦石頭上。

The price of the steelmaking ingredient, a profit generator for big mining houses such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale, has dropped more than 50 per cent over the course of the year, outpacing Brent, the international oil marker, down 45 per cent.

作爲鍊鋼原料，鐵礦石的價格今年已累計下跌逾50%，超過了國際原油基準布倫特原油(Brent crude)的跌幅，後者今年以來累計下跌了45%。鐵礦石是必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓(Rio Tinto)和淡水河谷(Vale)等大型礦商的搖錢樹。

The reason for the meltdown is primarily supply. The big producers brought a significant amount of new capacity on line this year just as demand growth in China, the biggest steel producer and consumer of seaborne iron ore, started to slow.

鐵礦石暴跌的主要原因是供給過剩。大型鐵礦石生產商今年新上線了大量產能，而中國對鐵礦石的需求增速又恰好開始放緩。中國是全球第一大鋼材生產國和海運鐵礦石消費國。

Ominously, they plan to add more tonnes to the market in 2015 even though the iron ore price is at a five-and-half-year low of $65.50 a tonne.

不妙的是，儘管鐵礦石價格已然處於每噸65.50美元這一5年半低點，這些鐵礦石生產商仍然計劃在2015年進一步增加市場供應。

With the majors seemingly hell-bent on delivering these extra tonnes — as the lowest-cost producers running vast operations, they assume they can withstand weak prices while rivals fall out of the market — the question is what, if anything, can absorb or offset this fresh supply.

大型鐵礦石生產商看上去鐵了心要增加供應，它們的生產成本最低、經營規模最大，因而認爲在競爭對手紛紛出局的時候，自己能夠撐過這段價格低迷期。那麼問題來了：什麼東西（如果真有這種東西的話）能夠消化、或抵消新增的供應呢？

Those looking to increased demand from China’s steelmaking industry are likely to be disappointed. Morgan Stanley thinks 2015 will mark the peak in Chinese steel consumption and production.

那些寄望於中國鋼材行業將增加需求的人很可能會失望。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)認爲，中國的鋼材消費和生產將在2015年見頂。

The case for a stabilisation in prices rests on more supply leaving the seaborne market. Rio Tinto estimates 125m tonnes of capacity will close this year. The cuts have come from non-mainstream producers as well as high-cost, privately owned, mines in China itself.

鐵礦石價格企穩的希望寄託在海運市場減少供應上。力拓估計，今年將有1.25億噸產能關閉。非主流生產商以及中國國內那些高成本的民營礦商已爲削減供應做出了貢獻。

But the remaining high-cost supply could be more difficult to dislodge.

但餘下的高成本供應可能更難移除。

Depreciating commodity currencies have thrown a lifeline to some producers, while large parts of the Chinese mining and steel industry are controlled by state-owned steel companies where jobs, not profits, are the priority. A sustained period of low prices — perhaps $50 a tonne — will be needed to force closures.

大宗商品出口國貨幣貶值，讓一些生產商得到了喘息的機會。與此同時，中國採礦和鋼材行業大部分爲國有鋼鐵公司控制，它們優先考慮的是就業、而非利潤。只有鐵礦石價格長期徘徊在低位，比如每噸50美元，纔會迫使生產商關閉產能。