拉加德在中國發展高層論壇專題討論上的發言

Accelerating Reforms to Establish a Risk Prevention System – A View from the IMF
基金組織觀點：加快改革步伐，建立風險防範體系

Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director
基金組織總裁 克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

Beijing, March 20, 2016
北京，2016年3月20日

Ladies and Gentlemen,
女士們，先生們：

Good afternoon, Xiàwǔ hǎo.
下午好。

Let me start by thanking Mr. Long Guoqiang, Vice Director of the Development Research Center, for the kind introduction. I would also like to thank Governor Zhou for giving me the opportunity to share this panel with him on such an important topic.
首先我要感謝國務院發展研究中心副主任隆國強的介紹，也要感謝周小川行長，讓我有機會能同他一道來共同討論這個重要問題。

Establishing a stronger and safer international monetary system to prevent risks is of paramount importance for advanced and emerging economies alike. The moment could not be more fitting, given the conjuncture of risks and transitions in the global economy.
建立更有力、更安全的國際貨幣體系以防範風險，對發達經濟體和新興經濟體而言，都是頭等大事。全球經濟正處在風險和轉型交匯的時期，現在正是構建和改善該體系最恰當的時刻。

With China making a major contribution, over the past few years, we saw the center of global economic “gravity” shift toward emerging and developing economies. Together this group of countries is home to 85 percent of the world’s population and accounting for almost 60 percent of global GDP. Since the crisis, they have become the engine of global activity, contributing more than 80 percent of global growth.
以中國爲代表，我們看到，過去幾年裏，全球經濟重心轉移到了新興和發展中經濟體。這些國家佔世界總人口的85%，全球GDP約60%。危機爆發以來，這些國家成爲全球活力的來源，貢獻了全球增長的 80%。

Yet today, economic momentum in this group of countries is slowing. Structural shifts on the global landscape, including lower commodity prices and tighter and more volatile financial conditions, are denting their long run growth potential. China itself is in the midst of an historic transformation to deliver on the Chinese Dream of a “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.
但現在這些國家經濟發展的勢頭正在放緩，長期發展潛力因全球經濟形勢的結構性轉 變而受到抑制，如大宗商商品價格下降，金融條件收緊且波動更劇烈。中國本身正處在實現“中華民族偉大振興”這一中國夢的歷史轉折期。

We all agree that this transition is good for China, and good for the world – but that the road may at times be bumpy.
我們都認爲這樣的轉變對中國來說是好事，對世界來說也是好事，但這條道路可能充滿曲折。

The global economy today is increasingly multipolar, complex, and interconnected. One needs to ask how the international monetary system can be strengthened so that China and other emerging countries can restore momentum and safely deepen economic and financial integration.
今天，全球經濟越來越多極化，越來越複雜，互聯程度也越來越高。人們要問，如何強化國際貨幣體系，從而使中國和其他新興國家恢復發展勢頭，妥善深化經濟和金融一體化呢？

As one of the largest and most systemic economies in the world, China has a clear and central role to play in this system – as Governor Zhou has eloquently articulated. The decision to include China’s currency as part of the SDR basket starting October this year, along with the 2010 governance reforms which places it among the top 3 shareholders in the IMF, are a testament to its growing leadership role in the global arena. And we should anticipate an even greater role for China in the future.
中國是世界上規模最大、最具系統性影響的經濟體之一，在國際貨幣體系中發揮着明確的核心作用，對此周行長已經表達的非常明確了。基金組織於2010年開展的份額改革在2015年終獲生效，使得中國躋身於基金組織前三大股東之列，並決定從今年10月份開始將人民幣納入特別提款權貨幣籃子。這些行動都是中國在全球舞臺上領導作用增強的明證。我們期待中國將來能發揮更大的作用。

1. Where is the IMS today?
一、國際貨幣體系的現狀

Over the coming few months, the IMF, in consultation with our membership, will be exploring possible options to strengthen the resilience of the international monetary system.
接下來幾個月，基金組織將與各成員國磋商，探討可採取哪些措施加強國際貨幣體系的抵禦能力。

So let me start with how we see that system today.
因此，我首先要談的是我們要如何看待今天的國際貨幣體系。

The 2008 financial crisis revealed considerable fault lines in the system. The impetus for reform was inevitable.
2008年金融危機暴露出該體系存在嚴重的斷層。改革勢在必行。
The priorities for the Fund were clear. We overhauled our own surveillance toolkit to take better account of economic and financial interconnections and spillovers, and revamped our institutional view on the management of capital flows. This is crucial to draw more attention to the risks and global implications of domestic policies. We are also enhancing our understanding of the impact of non-economic spillovers such as epidemics.
基金組織的工作重點很明確。我們徹底改革了基金組織的監督工具，更妥善地考慮了經濟與金融互聯性和溢出效應，改進了關於資本流動管理的機構觀點。這是使各國更關注本國政策風險和全球影響的關鍵。我們還加深了對流行病等非經濟溢出效應影響的理解。
The Fund’s role in the overall global financial safety net was also strengthened. The recent approval of the 2010 governance reforms led to a doubling of our quota resources – to about US$660 billion. This increase will put the Fund on a stronger financial footing and boost its permanent lending capacity.
基金組織在全球金融安全網中的作用也得到加強。近期批准2010年治理和份額改革後，基金組織的份額資源增加了一倍，約達到6600億美元。這一增長將強化基金組織財務基礎，提高其長期貸款能力。
Recent steps also bode well for greater representation of dynamic emerging economies in the governance of the Fund. With the quota reforms, the BRIC countries are now among our top 10 shareholders.
近期的各種措施也預示着充滿活力的新興經濟體在基金組織治理中贏得更大的話語權。份額改革後，所有金磚國家現在均已進入十大股東之列。

There have also been improvements outside the Fund. Think of improvements to the global architecture, with the creation of the Financial Stability Board. Think of improvements in global cooperation, through the G20, of which China is currently the Chair. And think of improvements to the global financial safety net, with the creation of the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, the Chiang Mai Initiative, and the ESM in Europe. In many of these initiatives, China is a key founder and contributor.
基金組織以外的領域也取得了進展。比如，金融穩定委員會的成立改善了全球架構；二十國集團推動了全球合作，中國目前正擔任二十國集團的主席國；又如金磚銀行應急儲備安排、清邁倡議以及歐洲穩定機制的創立完善了全球金融安全網。中國是其中一些此類倡議的主要創建者和推動方。

Today, there is also a network of bilateral swap lines that extends beyond the major advanced countries to include systemic emerging economies. Again, China is becoming increasingly important in this network, with more than 30 renminbi swap lines in place as of end-2015. These are equivalent to about US$500 billion and account for 85 percent of all global swap lines.
如今，雙邊互換網絡已經不僅侷限於主要發達國家，而是延伸至具有系統性影響的新興經濟體。中國在該網絡中的作用也越來越重要，截至2015年底，已確定了30多項人民幣互換額度，數額約爲5000億美元，佔全球互換總額度的85%。

2. The need for further reform of the IMS
二、進一步改革國際貨幣體系的必要性

So, with all these important changes, a natural question is why the need for further reform of the international monetary system?
既然發生了這些重要的變化，人們自然要問爲什麼還要進一步改革國際貨幣體系？

In my view, the answer is simple. These reforms were implemented in response to the crisis back in 2008.
我認爲答案很簡單。這些改革是爲了應對2008年爆發的危機。

The world today presents us with new realities that require a different response. Ongoing financial globalization and integration is creating challenges that we need to adapt to. I can think of three such new and interrelated realities.
當今世界出現了新情況，我們需對此做出不同的反應。金融全球化和一體化正在推進，我們需要適應由此產生的挑戰。下面我列舉三個相互關聯的新情況。

New reality number 1: Post-crisis adjustments and increased financial integration have contributed to the build-up of financial vulnerabilities.
新情況1：危機後的調整和金融一體化程度的提高導致金融脆弱性累積。

The good news here is that global current account imbalances have narrowed since the crisis. The not-so-good news is that the nature of the adjustment – combined with increased financial integration in many emerging and developing economies – may have increased domestic vulnerabilities.
這一新情況帶來的好消息是，危機爆發以來全球經常賬戶失衡有所改善；但不那麼好的消息是，調整本身以及許多新興和發展中經濟體金融一體化程度提高可能加劇國內脆弱性。

Financial integration brings clear benefits in terms of better allocation of capital globally and greater risk sharing. But if not properly managed and regulated, it can bring financial stability risks, which the global financial safety net may not be adequate to handle.
金融一體化能改善全球資本分配，促進風險共擔，帶來的好處是顯而易見的。但如果缺乏妥善的管理和監管，金融一體化可能造成全球金融安全網不足以應對的金融穩定風險。

As of end-2014, total cross border flows in emerging and developing economies stood at about US$20 trillion. It is no surprise that cross border borrowing, particularly for banks and corporates, has become an important source of funding for many emerging economies. Yet, this source of funding can contribute to balance sheet mismatches and possible liquidity pressures.
截至2014年底，新興和發展中經濟體的跨境資金流動總額約爲20萬億美元。跨境借貸，特別是銀行和公司借貸，成爲許多新興經濟體融資的主要資金來源，這並不足爲奇。但是，這種融資來源會導致資產負債表錯配，可能造成流動性壓力。

Let us also piece together the major elements of the financial safety net that can be called upon to alleviate such liquidity pressures. These would include four broad elements: individual countries’ foreign exchange reserves, bilateral swap lines, regional financing arrangements, and financing through multilateral institutions like the Fund.
現在我們再來總結一下可以用於減輕流動性壓力的金融安全網的關鍵要素，主要包括 四大要素：單個國家的外匯儲備、雙邊互換額度、區域融資安排和通過基金組織等多邊機構進行融資。

Together these resources were “roughly” estimated at about US$16 trillion in 2014, of which the bulk – US$12 trillion – is individual countries’ foreign reserves. Yet, not all countries have equal access to the various elements of the safety net.
據“粗略”估計，2014年這些資源共達16萬億美元，其中大部分（約12萬億美元）是單個國家的外匯儲備。但不是所有國家都能平等獲取安全網中的各項資源。

On one end of the spectrum, there are reserve currency-issuing advanced economies. These are best covered by all the elements of the existing framework. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there are the non-systemic emerging and developing economies, which face the most limited set of options in this safety net.
一方面，發達經濟體發行儲備貨幣。現有框架的各要素最大程度地覆蓋了這些經濟體。而另一方面，不具備系統性影響的新興和發展中經濟體在該安全網中的選擇最有限。

Clearly, we need a bigger – and more inclusive – net that captures all risks!
我們顯然需要一個更大和更具包容性的網絡，以防範各種風險！

New reality number 2: Capital flow volatility is becoming a permanent feature of the global landscape.
新情況2：資本流動波動正成爲全球形勢的一個常見特徵。

Consider the exponential growth of cross-border flows over the past few years. These flows reflected both “push” factors, such as appropriately expansionary monetary policies in advanced economies, and “pull” factors, such as rapid growth in emerging economies.
過去幾年裏，跨境流動呈指數性增長。這些流動既反映出發達經濟體恰當的擴張性貨幣政策等“推動”因素，也顯示了新興經濟體迅速增長等“拉動”因素。

Yet today, uncertainty about global economic prospects and asynchronicity in monetary policies of major advanced economies pose a challenge for the emerging world. We should expect that episodes like the “taper tantrum” of May 2013 could be recurring, rather than one-off.
然而，現今全球經濟發展前景的不確定性和主要發達經濟體貨幣政策的不同步給新興 經濟體帶來挑戰。我們應該認識到，2013年5月“縮減恐慌”會再次發生，而不是一去不返。

The turning of the credit cycle in emerging economies – as capital inflows decelerate or even reverse – is adding a further layer of complexity. Last year, for example, emerging markets saw about $200 billion in net capital outflows, compared with $125 billion in net inflows in 2014.
新興經濟體信貸週期的轉向使複雜性又加深了一層，如資本流入減速甚至逆轉。比如， 新興市場去年淨資本流出約爲2000億美元，而2014年資本淨流入爲1250億美元。

For a sample of 45 emerging market economies, the cumulative slowdown in capital inflows between 2010 and 2015 is estimated at about US$1.1 trillion. Relative to economic activity, the aggregate decline in net capital inflows represents about 5 percent of the sample’s GDP.
分析一個由45個新興市場經濟體組成的樣本，其2010年到2015年期間資本流入增長的累計降幅估計約爲1.1萬億美元。與經濟活動規模相比，淨資本流入下降總額約佔樣本經濟體GDP的5%。

These magnitudes can test the resilience of even the most robust macroeconomic frameworks. Quick liquidity support during systemic events becomes of paramount importance to stem the risk of broader contagion.
即便一國具有最穩健的宏觀經濟框架，如此大規模的資本流動變化也是對其抵禦能力 的考驗。在發生系統性事件時迅速提供流動性支撐是遏制蔓延風險的重中之重。

New reality number 3: Increased financial globalization also means that financial spillovers are the norm, not the exception.
新情況3：金融全球化程度提高還意味着金融溢出效應成爲常態而非例外情況。

Financial integration also strengthens spillovers, or knock-on effects, across countries. Think of the turmoil earlier this year that – for a while – wiped out the equivalent of US$6 trillion – or 8.5 percent of global GDP – in equity market indices.
金融一體化加劇了各國之間的溢出效應或連鎖反應。比如，今年年初的波動雖然持續時間很短，但股票市場指數反映出，該波動造成了6萬億美元或全球GDP 8.5%的損失。

In the current international architecture, the central role of major reserve currencies means that policy and financial developments in reserve issuing currencies can have significant spillover effects on other countries. These knock-on effects can constrain domestic policy choices, especially when countries are at different stages of the business cycle.
在當前的國際架構下，主要儲備貨幣發揮核心作用，這意味着儲備貨幣發行國的政策和金融發展變化對其他國家有着顯著的溢出效應。此類連鎖反應可能限制國內政策選擇，對處於商業週期困難階段的國家來說更是如此。

Even so, major advanced economies are no longer the only source of financial spillovers.
但即使如此，主要發達經濟體也不再是金融溢出效應的唯一來源。

Our forthcoming research in the Global Financial Stability Report shows that financial spillovers from emerging economies – to both advanced and to other emerging economies – have become stronger since the crisis. This is particularly the case for spillovers from equity markets in emerging economies, which increased by 28 percent since the crisis. Spillovers from some of the largest emerging economies, such as China and Brazil, were even bigger – at about 40 percent.
即將出版的《全球金融穩定報告》研究顯示，危機爆發以來，新興經濟體的金融溢出效應對發達經濟體和其他新興經濟體的影響增強。特別是新興經濟體股票市場的溢出效應自危機後增長了28%。中國、巴西等一些最大的新興經濟體產生的溢出效應更大，約達40%。

3. What should reforms focus on?
三、改革重點

So these are some of the new realities to which the international monetary system needs to adapt. There are others, of course. Think of the turbo-charged speed of financial transactions; think of digital currency and blockchain technology; think of cyber-hacking – from which even central banks are not immune. So, speaking practically, where should the focus of the reforms be? In my view, it is along two key dimensions.
以上是國際貨幣體系需調整適應的部分新情況。當然也還有其他的因素。比如高頻金融交易，數字貨幣和數據區塊鏈，再比如網絡黑客攻擊，就連央行也不能倖免。實際一點講，改革應該重點關注哪些領域呢？我認爲應主要從兩個方面推進改革。

First dimension: ensure that the global financial safety net is large enough, coherent, and works for all.
第一：確保全球金融安全網覆蓋充分，連貫一致，且對所有經濟體都能發揮作用。

Clearly, strong policies and effective Fund surveillance remain the cornerstone of crisis prevention. Still, a large enough and more coherent global safety net, with a well-resourced Fund, remains critical. Options should explore measures that would strengthen the reliability and reduce the stigma associated with accessing the safety net.
強有力的政策和基金組織的有效監督顯然仍是預防危機的基石。同樣，覆蓋充分和更加連貫的全球安全網以及資源充分的基金組織仍起着關鍵作用。我們可做的就是探索各種方法，增強可靠性，減少與利用安全網有關的污名效應。

At the Fund, we will be looking into ways to make our resources and instruments more predictable for crisis prevention and resolution. This includes further improving coordination among the various layers of the safety net.
基金組織將研究各種方法，提高資源和工具對危機預防和解決的可預測性，包括進一步改善安全網在不同層次間的協調。

We will also be exploring options to strengthen the role of the SDR in the international monetary system. The merits of a general SDR allocation will be considered in mid-2016, as part of our regular five-year review of the SDR.
我們還將探索如何強化特別提款權在國際貨幣體系中的作用。到2016年年中，在例行 的五年期特別提款權審查過程中，我們將考慮是否應進行一次特別提款權的普遍分配。

Second dimension: strengthen global cooperation on issues and policies affecting global stability.
第二：加強在影響全球穩定問題和政策方面的全球合作。

Increased global integration brings with it greater potential for spillovers – through trade, finance or confidence effects. As integration continues, effective cooperation is critical to the functioning of the international monetary system. This requires collective action from all countries.
全球一體化程度提高導致通過貿易、金融或信心影響更容易產生溢出效應。隨着一體化繼續推進，有效合作成爲國際貨幣體系運轉的關鍵，這要求各國採取集體行動

In practice, this involves large source countries – both advanced and emerging – to consider the impact of their policies on the rest of the world. We need to find a more systematic mechanism to discuss spillovers and how to mitigate them. There is also a need for greater cooperation on capital flows between source and recipient countries, and on global financial regulation.
實際上，這需要較大的溢出效應來源國（無論發達經濟體還是新興經濟體）考慮本國政策對世界其他國家的影響。我們要找出更系統化的機制，探討溢出效應和減輕該效應的方法。各方需就來源國和接受國之間的資本流動和全球金融監管開展更多合作。

For its part, the Fund will be taking stock of progress in the liberalization and management of capital flows, with a focus on capital flow measures and foreign exchange intervention. The role of macro- and micro-prudential policies in limiting vulnerabilities in the non-bank sector will also be explored, along with options to promote greater equity finance.
基金組織將考慮資本流動自由化和管理方面的進展，重點關注資本流動管理措施和外 匯干預。探索宏觀和微觀審慎政策在限制非銀行部門脆弱性方面的作用，同時採取措施促進股權融資。

Let me conclude. Many options for reform of the international monetary system have been considered in the past. But changes have seldom been forthcoming until times of crisis.
最後，我們過去曾考慮過很多關於國際貨幣體系的改革方案，但直到危機爆發才真正做出改變。

The structural shifts unfolding on the global landscape pose challenges to the current architecture of the system. We should not wait for the next crisis to implement the reforms that we know could actually help to “prevent” it.
全球範圍內出現的結構性轉變給該體系的當前架構帶來挑戰。既然我們知道改革實際 上能預防危機，我們就不應等到下次危機爆發時再改革。

Reforms should be reconsidered in a holistic manner and with an open mind. This is critical to ensure that we have an architecture that can cope with the stresses that may come along in the next decade.
我們應該從全局、開放的視角重新考慮改革。這是確保我們的架構能抵禦未來十年可能出現的各種壓力的關鍵。

Clearly, China has a pivotal role in this process. The world will be watching closely to learn from China as it deftly manages the delicate balance between economic transformation and deeper global integration.
在這個過程中，中國顯然發揮着核心作用。中國在實現經濟轉型與推進全球一體化之間嫺熟地保持了微妙平衡，全世界都將關注中國並從中汲取經驗。

There is a Chinese proverb that says: “To set a good example / Set yourself as the standard.” yǐ shēn zuò zé.
中國有句話叫做“以身作則”。

I am confident that with its wise leadership, China will set the right “standard” for itself – and the entire world.
我相信，中國能夠善用其領導力，爲自己也爲全世界設立正確的“標準”。

Thank you.
謝謝。