新興市場的追趕腳步被拖慢數十年
Emerging nations’ drive to catch up with the incomes of the developed world has been set back decades by the slowdown in their economies and the impact of the commodities slump, according to World Bank research.
世界銀行(World Bank)研究顯示，經濟放緩和大宗商品價格暴跌帶來的影響，將新興國家追趕發達國家收入的腳步拖慢了數十年。
The bank on Tuesday downgraded its global growth forecast because of what it said was a much worse than expected performance by commodity-exporting countries. It expects the global economy to grow 2.4 per cent this year, compared with a previous forecast of 2.9 per cent, with emerging commodity exporters as a group set to expand just 0.4 per cent — down from 3.2 per cent as recently as 2013.
週二，世行下調了全球增長預期，稱下調的原因是大宗商品出口國的表現比預期的糟糕得多。世行預計，今年全球經濟將增長2.4%，低於此前2.9%的預期。新興大宗商品出口國作爲一個整體將僅增長0.4%，而就在2013年時，增幅還曾達3.2%。
That downgrade came alongside a new analysis showing that for the first time since the turn of the century a majority of emerging and developing economies were no longer closing the income gap with the US and other rich countries.
與此同時，一份新的分析顯示，自世紀之交以來，首次有逾一半的新興和發展中經濟體沒有再縮小與美國等富國的收入差距。
Last year just 47 per cent of 114 developing economies tracked by the bank were catching up with US per capita gross domestic product, below 50 per cent for the first time since 2000 and down from 83 per cent of that same sample in 2007 as the global financial crisis took hold.
去年，世行跟蹤調查的114個發展中經濟體當中，只有47%的經濟體在人均國內生產總值(GDP)方面與美國縮小了差距，這是這一比例自2000年以來首次低於50%。同一調查樣本在2007年的比例爲83%——當時全球金融危機已站穩腳跟。
That, the bank’s economists warned, would have a meaningful impact on the future people in those countries could expect.
世行經濟學家警告稱，這將對這些國家民衆能夠期待的未來產生重大影響。
“Whereas, pre-crisis, the average [emerging market] could expect to reach advanced country income levels within a generation, the low growth of recent years has extended this catch-up period by several decades,” they wrote.
他們寫道：“危機以前，（新興市場）平均而言可指望在一代人之內達到發達國家的收入水平，近幾年的低增長已將這一追趕期延長了數十年。”
In the five years before the 2008 financial crisis, emerging markets could expect to take an average of 42.3 years to catch up with US per capita GDP, according to the bank’s analysis.
世行的分析稱，在2008年金融危機前的五年裏，新興市場平均而言可指望在42.3年後趕上美國的人均GDP。
But over the past three years, as major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa have slowed or fallen into recession, the slower average growth means the number of years it would take to catch up with the US has grown to 67.7 years.
但在過去三年裏，隨着巴西、俄羅斯和南非等主要新興經濟體增長放緩或陷入衰退，新興市場平均增速放緩，如此一來就得花67.7年才能趕上美國。
Many commodity-importing developing economies such as China and India had benefited from the lower prices and were proving relatively resilient.
許多進口大宗商品的發展中經濟體，比如中國和印度，則受益於價格下跌，並表現出較強的適應能力。
